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Thread: Alex Smith 2016

  1. #1
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    Default Alex Smith 2016

    Somewhere today I read a prediction that this season Alex would have just over 4,000 yards passing and just over 400 yards rushing. For a total of about 4,450 total yards. Last year his yards were 3,486 passing, 498 rushing, 3,984 total. So the prediction was for an increase in total yards of about 10% or about 29 yards per game (based on Alex playing all 16 games).

    Everybody knows I like Alex and think he is much better than he gets credit for, but my first reaction was..."Alex Smith...almost 4,500 total yards in a season? NO WAY!" But I figured I had better check some stats.

    In 2012 (10 games, last year with the 9ers) he had an average of 186.9 combined yards per game. In 2013 (15 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 249.5 yards per game. An increase of 62.6 yards combined per game. And increase of OVER 30%. In 2014 (15 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 234.6 combined yards per game. A decrease of 14.9 combined yards per game. 7%. In 2015 (16 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 249 yards per game. He was basically back to his 2013 averages.

    So what is my conclusion? Roughly 250 combined yards per game is basically the Alex Smith "normal" with the Chiefs right now. So the prediction of 281.2 combined yards per game (16 game season--12.5% increase--is a STRETCH).

    BUT....Here is the thing in both 2013 and 2015 he had over 400 yards rushing (431 and 498 respectively) but in 2014 he only had 254 yards rushing. And that accounted for most of his decline from 2013. His 2015 passing was 217.9 p/g, 2014 was 217.7 and 2013 was 220.9. So we shouldn't expect a huge increase in passing yards per game unless Reid completely abandons the run. And I think 500 Y/P/G rushing is probably close to his cap.

    So IMO it all comes down to how much can the passing game improve? And most of that will be on the receivers and tight ends.

    All in all I have a hard time seeing Alex going much over 260 combined yards per game for a total of maybe 4,160 based on a 16 game season. I think that is about his cap barring us having the best O-Line in the NFL.

    What do y'all think?

  2. #41
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    Chiefs4life24....milkman....Guys c'mon....let's not make his personal. I know enough about both of you to know that neither of you is a troll. You are BOTH good Chiefs fans. Opinions are like ashholes....we all have one. But will you both please save the animosity for the donks and raiders? Lets have fun here instead of fights.

  3. #42
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    To milkma s defense chiefs4life24 is a bit nieve to think everytbing he said about he knows everyone is going to bust out and guarantee they will reach there potential this year is a large nieve way of thinking. Theres no way he can know that for sure let alone guarantee it. Whej you say thst crap that makes me value your opinion a lil less and hsrd to take anyone serious when theres no way to be so sure. Theres lots of players who had tons of potential to only be a busts. No you can say your just being a positive thinker and laws of attraction. And just hoping since you said it that it will come true. Even with andy ried it doesnt make it a for sure thing. And its not bad to think and hope. But all we have right now is potential and talent. Theres no quarantess players will resch their potential. There may be higher probability for some but still no guarantees. The signs might point up but still no quarantess. Their track record might be the best but no quarantess. You cant honestly say you know for sure and can't guarantee anything just based on potential. I thinkk thats milkmans point.

  4. #43
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    I found out yesterday their is an I in team, its in the a-hole lol. Also im sorry milkman I meant no offence, I'm just extremely excited to see these guys play at a high level this year

  5. #44
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    Chiefs4life. Besides calling you nieve we could say your just extremely optimistic in players reaching their potential and i can get behind that cuz i sure hope they all reach their potential this year. I cant wait till august cuz ready for some football and ready to get a new dannnnnn....phone. i got a note 4 and had it for year and half and it worked perfect. Great phone but when they did their last software updates my phine freezes everything i try to do on it and will reset itself and samsung hasnt fixed their glitch and the note 6 (7) comes out aug 2 and i will finally have a phone that i dont want to through. I came so close of theowing this ohone as hard as i can into the ground. Not sure if there isnt anytbing more frustrating than a phone going bonkers all the dam....... time. Lol

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