Alex Smith 2016

[ctchiefsfan]

Somewhere today I read a prediction that this season Alex would have just over 4,000 yards passing and just over 400 yards rushing. For a total of about 4,450 total yards. Last year his yards were 3,486 passing, 498 rushing, 3,984 total. So the prediction was for an increase in total yards of about 10% or about 29 yards per game (based on Alex playing all 16 games).

Everybody knows I like Alex and think he is much better than he gets credit for, but my first reaction was..."Alex Smith...almost 4,500 total yards in a season? NO WAY!" But I figured I had better check some stats.

In 2012 (10 games, last year with the 9ers) he had an average of 186.9 combined yards per game. In 2013 (15 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 249.5 yards per game. An increase of 62.6 yards combined per game. And increase of OVER 30%. In 2014 (15 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 234.6 combined yards per game. A decrease of 14.9 combined yards per game. 7%. In 2015 (16 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 249 yards per game. He was basically back to his 2013 averages.

So what is my conclusion? Roughly 250 combined yards per game is basically the Alex Smith "normal" with the Chiefs right now. So the prediction of 281.2 combined yards per game (16 game season--12.5% increase--is a STRETCH).

BUT....Here is the thing in both 2013 and 2015 he had over 400 yards rushing (431 and 498 respectively) but in 2014 he only had 254 yards rushing. And that accounted for most of his decline from 2013. His 2015 passing was 217.9 p/g, 2014 was 217.7 and 2013 was 220.9. So we shouldn't expect a huge increase in passing yards per game unless Reid completely abandons the run. And I think 500 Y/P/G rushing is probably close to his cap.

So IMO it all comes down to how much can the passing game improve? And most of that will be on the receivers and tight ends.

All in all I have a hard time seeing Alex going much over 260 combined yards per game for a total of maybe 4,160 based on a 16 game season. I think that is about his cap barring us having the best O-Line in the NFL.

What do y'all think?

[matthewschiefs]

I mostly agree. Alex came up with just shy of 4,000 combined yards last season and I believe he should be able to push that to close to 4,200. But I think that is about as much as we can ever get from him. As for a Super Bowl win...I can't lay that completely on Alex. A Super Bowl is not won by one man. I takes a team. IMO if Alex gets close to 4,200 combined yards for the season he will have done his part and the rest will be up to the team.

I don't mean to imply the super bowl is on Alex alone.

Just that the lack of talent is not an excuse for Alex now. Because he does have talent around him

The days of Aj jenkins, Junior hemmingway and Frankie Hammond Jr in the starting lineup are over now thankfully

[jason1981]

Yes thank god no more bottom of the talent pool of wr's. Just hope charles isnt past his prime wkth his injuries to take advantage of the defense not being able to stack the box against him.

[Chiefs4life24]

Charles will do good things this year but he is changed gone are the days where he used to destroy people

[ctchiefsfan]

I don't mean to imply the super bowl is on Alex alone.

Just that the lack of talent is not an excuse for Alex now. Because he does have talent around him

The days of Aj jenkins, Junior hemmingway and Frankie Hammond Jr in the starting lineup are over now thankfully

Agreed. He doesn't have the very best supporting cast of receivers but it is a whole lot better than it was when he got here in 2013. If the O-line proves solid he should have a very good year. Up to now his 3 best seasons in his career have all come as a Chief. 2015 = #1. 2013 = #2. 2014 = #3. I'm expecting 2016 to become his new best ever. I think that anything less than very close to 4,200 combined passing and rushing yards will be a disappointment. Also hoping he cuts down on the number of sacks taken thanks to a more solid O-line.

[ctchiefsfan]

Just hope charles isnt past his prime wkth his injuries to take advantage of the defense not being able to stack the box against him.

Just so. But if JC is not his old self we still have West and Ware. As an aside, I expect this will be JC's last year as a Chief. We are going to have to free up a lot of Cap space next year to sign Poe and some others. I also expect this will be Berry's last year as a Chief.

[matthewschiefs]

Yes thank god no more bottom of the talent pool of wr's. Just hope charles isnt past his prime wkth his injuries to take advantage of the defense not being able to stack the box against him.

With West and Ware we won't have to rely on Charles as much.

The Chiefs FINALLY have some depth on offense.

[milkman]

Tom Brady won a couple super bowls by himself so it can be done

No, Tom Brady never won any Super Bowls by himself.

[milkman]

As for the talent at receiver, outside of Maclin, and Kelce at TE, we have no proven weapons.

We have a few candidates that we hope step up to become weapons to take some of the pressure off of those two to perform, but hope is all that there is at this point.

[jason1981]

As for the talent at receiver, outside of Maclin, and Kelce at TE, we have no proven weapons.

We have a few candidates that we hope step up to become weapons to take some of the pressure off of those two to perform, but hope is all that there is at this point.

That moght be so but the talent and potential are better tuay what we had as the #2 and 3 wr is concerned. Im really hoping conley steps up.

[Chiefs4life24]

From Maclin to #6 we are loaded with awesome talent even the new Robinson you guys are gonna like him, I want to keep 7 receivers, hopefully we can fit Mitch Mathews on the 53 cause he will be taken if he is on the practice squad