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Thread: Alex Smith 2016

  1. #1
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    Default Alex Smith 2016

    Somewhere today I read a prediction that this season Alex would have just over 4,000 yards passing and just over 400 yards rushing. For a total of about 4,450 total yards. Last year his yards were 3,486 passing, 498 rushing, 3,984 total. So the prediction was for an increase in total yards of about 10% or about 29 yards per game (based on Alex playing all 16 games).

    Everybody knows I like Alex and think he is much better than he gets credit for, but my first reaction was..."Alex Smith...almost 4,500 total yards in a season? NO WAY!" But I figured I had better check some stats.

    In 2012 (10 games, last year with the 9ers) he had an average of 186.9 combined yards per game. In 2013 (15 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 249.5 yards per game. An increase of 62.6 yards combined per game. And increase of OVER 30%. In 2014 (15 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 234.6 combined yards per game. A decrease of 14.9 combined yards per game. 7%. In 2015 (16 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 249 yards per game. He was basically back to his 2013 averages.

    So what is my conclusion? Roughly 250 combined yards per game is basically the Alex Smith "normal" with the Chiefs right now. So the prediction of 281.2 combined yards per game (16 game season--12.5% increase--is a STRETCH).

    BUT....Here is the thing in both 2013 and 2015 he had over 400 yards rushing (431 and 498 respectively) but in 2014 he only had 254 yards rushing. And that accounted for most of his decline from 2013. His 2015 passing was 217.9 p/g, 2014 was 217.7 and 2013 was 220.9. So we shouldn't expect a huge increase in passing yards per game unless Reid completely abandons the run. And I think 500 Y/P/G rushing is probably close to his cap.

    So IMO it all comes down to how much can the passing game improve? And most of that will be on the receivers and tight ends.

    All in all I have a hard time seeing Alex going much over 260 combined yards per game for a total of maybe 4,160 based on a 16 game season. I think that is about his cap barring us having the best O-Line in the NFL.

    What do y'all think?

  2. #2
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    Given how good our line is this year and our 3 backs were gonna run a lot I bet you

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by ctchiefsfan View Post
    Somewhere today I read a prediction that this season Alex would have just over 4,000 yards passing and just over 400 yards rushing. For a total of about 4,450 total yards. Last year his yards were 3,486 passing, 498 rushing, 3,984 total. So the prediction was for an increase in total yards of about 10% or about 29 yards per game (based on Alex playing all 16 games).

    Everybody knows I like Alex and think he is much better than he gets credit for, but my first reaction was..."Alex Smith...almost 4,500 total yards in a season? NO WAY!" But I figured I had better check some stats.

    In 2012 (10 games, last year with the 9ers) he had an average of 186.9 combined yards per game. In 2013 (15 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 249.5 yards per game. An increase of 62.6 yards combined per game. And increase of OVER 30%. In 2014 (15 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 234.6 combined yards per game. A decrease of 14.9 combined yards per game. 7%. In 2015 (16 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 249 yards per game. He was basically back to his 2013 averages.

    So what is my conclusion? Roughly 250 combined yards per game is basically the Alex Smith "normal" with the Chiefs right now. So the prediction of 281.2 combined yards per game (16 game season--12.5% increase--is a STRETCH).

    BUT....Here is the thing in both 2013 and 2015 he had over 400 yards rushing (431 and 498 respectively) but in 2014 he only had 254 yards rushing. And that accounted for most of his decline from 2013. His 2015 passing was 217.9 p/g, 2014 was 217.7 and 2013 was 220.9. So we shouldn't expect a huge increase in passing yards per game unless Reid completely abandons the run. And I think 500 Y/P/G rushing is probably close to his cap.

    So IMO it all comes down to how much can the passing game improve? And most of that will be on the receivers and tight ends.

    All in all I have a hard time seeing Alex going much over 260 combined yards per game for a total of maybe 4,160 based on a 16 game season. I think that is about his cap barring us having the best O-Line in the NFL.

    What do y'all think?
    Neat post.

    IMHO If (and that's a big IF ) the goal is to get 4,000 yards passing out of Alex Smith, the key lies with our #2 and #3 WR's. Outside of Maclin we have no serious consistent threat at WR that scares other teams. If Conley or Wilson develop into every down threats, and Kelce continues to improve, watch out.

    The other thing I can see Reid focusing on is more passing to RB's, and being really fanatic about cutting down on the drops. Our RB corps is really underrated IMO and some aggressive playcalling in that direction might really wake things up.

  4. #4
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    Yeah as really he not just can pass but can run as well.
    ​Happy Halloween 2021

  5. #5
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    I was thinking about starting a thread on him myself.

    This is a big year for Alex Smith. IMO this is put up or shut up time.

    We have great depth at RB. A pretty damn good TE

    The O line last year by the end of the year was doing a pretty nice job.

    And for the first time in a long time we have a WR group that might not be a top level group but there's more then 1 guy that a defense is going to have to respect.

    Since I've been on this site I have defended the QB whoever it was. And I stand by that now. The only thing I have to point out in that regard is that the number 1 WR we were giving QBs now can't find a job. Many wondered what he would do outside of KC well we found out 5 Catches 53 yards. So I still think that having poor play at the QB spot wasn't what doomed the chiefs for many a year it was poor play and talent across the board on offense that doomed this team. And I think the facts support that opinion.

    But that was then this is now. And I see talent around the QB. It's up to Alex Smith to get the job done as the QB of this team. I look forward to seeing him get the job done. If not then well I won't be so quick to defend him this time around. He has far more around him then any QB we've had in a long time. GET THE JOB DONE ALEX. IT'S TIME I WANT A FREAKING RING
    TopekaRoy is my hero!

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    Quote Originally Posted by matthewschiefs View Post
    I was thinking about starting a thread on him myself.

    This is a big year for Alex Smith. IMO this is put up or shut up time.

    We have great depth at RB. A pretty damn good TE

    The O line last year by the end of the year was doing a pretty nice job.

    And for the first time in a long time we have a WR group that might not be a top level group but there's more then 1 guy that a defense is going to have to respect.

    Since I've been on this site I have defended the QB whoever it was. And I stand by that now. The only thing I have to point out in that regard is that the number 1 WR we were giving QBs now can't find a job. Many wondered what he would do outside of KC well we found out 5 Catches 53 yards. So I still think that having poor play at the QB spot wasn't what doomed the chiefs for many a year it was poor play and talent across the board on offense that doomed this team. And I think the facts support that opinion.

    But that was then this is now. And I see talent around the QB. It's up to Alex Smith to get the job done as the QB of this team. I look forward to seeing him get the job done. If not then well I won't be so quick to defend him this time around. He has far more around him then any QB we've had in a long time. GET THE JOB DONE ALEX. IT'S TIME I WANT A FREAKING RING
    I mostly agree. Alex came up with just shy of 4,000 combined yards last season and I believe he should be able to push that to close to 4,200. But I think that is about as much as we can ever get from him. As for a Super Bowl win...I can't lay that completely on Alex. A Super Bowl is not won by one man. I takes a team. IMO if Alex gets close to 4,200 combined yards for the season he will have done his part and the rest will be up to the team.

  7. #7
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    Tom Brady won a couple super bowls by himself so it can be done

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chiefs4life24 View Post
    Tom Brady won a couple super bowls by himself so it can be done
    Perhaps. But Alex is not Tom Brady.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chiefs4life24 View Post
    Given how good our line is this year and our 3 backs were gonna run a lot I bet you
    . I think you're forgetting who our play caller is still. I don't think we run the ball any more than we have in the past. Andy Reid won't change who he is based on who we have

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin5772002 View Post
    . I think you're forgetting who our play caller is still. I don't think we run the ball any more than we have in the past. Andy Reid won't change who he is based on who we have
    Reid will cost us atleast 2 games a year with his play calling.

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