Draft a QB this year???

[ctchiefsfan]

First off, let me say I LIKE Alex Smith. And I think we all know that he is our starter for 2017 and maybe beyond. By the same token, he is 33, isn't getting any younger and he's taken a TON of hits during his career (353 sacks over the course of the 11 years where he played 7 or more games). That is an average of 32.1 sacks per season. He has taken 157 sacks in his 4 years with the Chiefs for an average of 39.25 per season. He has been hit and hit hard a whole lot of times--especially the game against the Colts last year. Alex isn't getting any younger and the high number of sacks only gets tougher to take as he gets older.

The point to all this is that the Chiefs need to be asking themselves what they are going to do in the "life after Alex Smith".

As things stand now, we have Alex and 2 UDFAs...Bray and Stave.

Bray is an enigma to me. I haven't seen him do much of anything, yet Reid and Dorsey seem to think he has "something" because they've kept him on the team and even given him a raise. So I just don't know what to think about Bray.

Does anybody really know anything about Stave beyond a few college highlights reels on youtube?

Reid and Dorsey have been quick to make sure they always had an veteran backup to Alex (Chase Daniel and Foles) yet we have no veteran backup now and with all the QB-needy teams that have more cap money than us I'm not sure where we can get one for this year. Seems like our back-up QB this year is likely to be Bray, Stave or someone we draft this year.

Add this all up and it doesn't seem very likely to me that we have a clear long-term replacement for Alex on the roster right now. Or even a clear short-term backup. The fact that Dorsey has been bringing so many QB draft prospects to KC the last few weeks seems to confirm that notion.

All this leads me to one simple conclusion...we need to draft a QB in the next year or two and that QB needs to be "ready to go" by 2019 at the latest. IMO the worst thing we could do would be to draft a rookie and throw him right in as the starter from day 1 so that we are pretty much forced to draft a QB this year or next. Alternatively we could trade for an established veteran as we have done many times before.

And that leads us to another problem....The Chiefs are GOOD (nice problem to have). We're drafting at #27 this year and I don't expect we'll have the kind of meltdown this year that would put us much above pick #16 next year and I doubt we will pick that high. We're too damned good for our own good. Happily, we have a BUNCH of compensatory picks this year. We could use them to trade up this year or we could trade them off for picks next year that we could then use to trade up next year or perhaps trade off in a package for a proven veteran like we have done so many times before.

Sorry for the long post but "life after Alex Smith" is bothering me and I'd like to hear some opinions on what we should be doing.

[brdempsey69]

You are right. If there is a time to start thinking about "life after Alex", now is that time. As for drafting a QB, they best case scenario is to have one fall into their lap at pick #27, but that may not happen.

[ctchiefsfan]

Thanks Demps....

As I have said before, I don't follow the college game but from my reading I get the impression there is nothing close to a "sure thing" in this years' QB class and with all the "QB-needy" teams we'd probably have to pay through the nose to move up high enough in the draft to get our 1st or 2cond choice at QB. And why do that when this years' QB class just doesn't seem to have any kind of a "sure thing"? I've also "heard" (internet chatter so who knows what it's worth) that next years' QB class looks better (at the moment) than this year. Next year we are unlikely to have any compensatory picks so I'm wondering if maybe it would be a good idea to trade off some of this years' comp picks so that maybe we have more trade bait to trade off with next year???? Essentially kick this years' comp picks down the road to next year?

As you have pointed out, the Chiefs do not have a great record for drafting and developing QBs so perhaps extra picks next year would be valuable in next years' draft but also available to use as trade bait for an established QB?

I don't know the answer but I do know (as it seems Dorsey and Reid do) that we need to be getting SERIOUS about what we are going to do in "life after Alex".

[Eydugstr]

Good post ctc. While I am not sure this is the year to draft a QB, we do need to start thinking about life after Alex. Next year IMHO is the year we'll be hearing a LOT of QB talk in KC. We have brought some QBs in for interviews, but like Demps pointed out, is anybody going to fall to #27 that we really want?

The other thing to consider is this...even if we draft the next Joe Montana, what will/can we do to solve the drop problem? Will drafting a QB outweigh drafting another shutdown corner, stellar possesion WR or another pass rusher?

[brdempsey69]

One more thing. One must remember how the Chiefs got caught with their pants down when Trent Green moved on & that regime at that time didn't really prepare for "life after Trent Green".

[brdempsey69]

I just looked at Adam Schein's article at NFL.com called "2017 NFL Draft Matchmaking" and he match-makes Deshaun Watson to the Chiefs. The article is right here:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...tteam-pairings

What Schein says conforms to exactly what CTC is saying here and cannot be refuted. If Watson does fall to #27, my gut feeling tells me that they have to take him. With 9 picks still remaining, they could package some picks and try to move up in the 2nd round to try and get a quality player for another position.

[Eydugstr]

One more thing. One must remember how the Chiefs got caught with their pants down when Trent Green moved on & that regime at that time didn't really prepare for "life after Trent Green".

THAT regime didn't even prepare for Trent Green (as in Carl Peterson and Herm Edwards did nothing to keep the o-line in serviceable shape). Trent Green got concussions, then Trent Green got out, then Huard got concussions...Thankfully that's not the case now, the O-line isn't perfect but it's a whole lot better than what happened under King Carl, Herm Edwards and then later Pioli...

[ctchiefsfan]

Good post ctc. While I am not sure this is the year to draft a QB, we do need to start thinking about life after Alex. Next year IMHO is the year we'll be hearing a LOT of QB talk in KC. We have brought some QBs in for interviews, but like Demps pointed out, is anybody going to fall to #27 that we really want?

The other thing to consider is this...even if we draft the next Joe Montana, what will/can we do to solve the drop problem? Will drafting a QB outweigh drafting another shutdown corner, stellar possesion WR or another pass rusher?

Thanks Dugstr...

You seem to be getting right at the meat of the problem. We have the comp picks this year to trade up if we want, but is there really anybody out there worth trading up for? I don't really get the impression there is. So as Demps said, the ideal situation is one of the "name prospects" falls to us at #27. If so, I can't see a problem with spending #27 on a QB this year if someone seemingly worth having becomes available to us. Train him up for a year. Give him some reps during "garbage time" and if we clinch a playoff berth then maybe rest Alex for the last game or two and give the kid some more exposure to the "real deal". That would give us a real good idea if he has the ability to be Alex's replacement or if we needed to go "QB hunting" next year as well. Meantime we haven't burnt any of our comp picks. In that case we trade off our comp picks for picks next year unless there is some other player we really want in the later rounds but feel we need to trade up to get.

On the drops and needs/desires at other positions...I'm not sure we need another WR or at least not in the first 3 rounds. Theoretically, Maclin will be healthy again this season and Hill certainly showed in the latter part of last year that he has a pretty good set of hands and the speed to get open. The guys behind them while not spectacular have certainly made their share of very good plays so I'm inclined to think we have enough talent at WR that we don't need to consider spending a pick in the first 3 rounds on a WR unless a "superstar potential" guy falls into our laps. What is of more concern to me is our Defense. Sutton is a MASTER of "next man up" and seemingly has a way of making some comparative unknows look pretty good, but I have this nasty feeling that we really need some help on our Defense...not just at run stopping but in other areas as well. Let's face it, if Dee Ford had progressed more quickly, Tamba Hali would already be gone. He is still a very good player but I doubt anyone would argue that he hasn't lost a few steps. And as always, our O-line while decent is never going to be considered one of the best in the NFL. So spending a pick in the first 3 rounds on O-line wouldn't wasteful.

We've got a very good team but there are very few places where a top quality draft addition wouldn't be a tremendous help. Look at the difference that Peters and Hill (just 2 players) have made in the last 2 years. I HATE throwing 1st round picks at QBs when there are so many places where we could really use the addition of someone like Peters or Hill. I guess that that right there is the best argument there is for drafting "Best Player Available". But at the same time, we know beyond a shadow of a doubt that unless Reid has been hiding Bray as a "Secret Weapon" that we really have to be working our tails off preparing for "Life After Alex"...because that time is coming sooner than we would like.

[ctchiefsfan]

I just looked at Adam Schein's article at NFL.com called "2017 NFL Draft Matchmaking" and he match-makes Deshaun Watson to the Chiefs. The article is right here:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...tteam-pairings

What Schein says conforms to exactly what CTC is saying here and cannot be refuted. If Watson does fall to #27, my gut feeling tells me that they have to take him. With 9 picks still remaining, they could package some picks and try to move up in the 2nd round to try and get a quality player for another position.

Thanks for the article Demps...

It's "popular wisdom" that Reid runs a pretty complicated offense so unless Hunt morphs into Al Davis, Reid will be around for several more years which means any QB we draft needs a year or preferably 2 to learn the system and Alex is pretty much the perfect person to learn it from. And that just stresses the importance of finding Alex's replacement this year or next. You don't throw a recruit right off the street into combat and you don't throw a kid fresh out of college ball into Andy Reid's Offense. So if Watson falls to #27 I think he'd be well worth spending the pick.

That said, IMO we'd be foolish to "force" a QB pick in the 1st round. From everything I've read next year appears to have a better QB draft class than this year so if Watson doesn't fall to us at #27 then wait 'till next year. It's not like there are not plenty of places where we wouldn't benefit from using our 1st 3 picks...D-line, O-line and secondary come to mind. But IMO we must draft a QB this year or next unless Reid and Dorsey know a whole lot more about Bray than any of us do.

[Chiefs4life24]

I would prefer Mahomes but would be okay with Watson