Random ramblings on Alex Smith and Pat Mahomes...

[ctchiefsfan]

Since those of us that post here regularly are pretty serious Chiefs fans (we don't seem to attract many bandwagon types) and since I've been pondering the whole Alex Smith/Pat Mahomes situation for close to a month now I thought I'd post the conclusions I have come to and see what my Brother Chiefs fans are thinking about the situation.

My thoughts.....shaded somewhat by the fact that I really just plain like Alex....

#1) It sounds horrible, but Mahomes was brought in to kick Alex out the door.

#2) Alex knows that #1 is probably true. It's happening to Alex all over again. If he can step up in a HUGE way this year and get us to the AFC Championship game or better then we probably keep him for 2018 or maybe beyond. If not he's probably gone after this season. So certainly that is a POWERFUL INCENTIVE for Alex to have a great season since even if Alex gets cut loose after this season having a GREAT year will help him get better offers in 2018. And if we cut him loose he's just not likely to retire at age 34.

#3) #1 is true because Alex hasn't gotten us where we want to go and because since we seem to be in eternal cap-hell Alex's $20 million + cap hit in 2018 is a very temping target to free up a LOT of cap space.

#4) I really hate saying this but I think this is the last year we'll see Alex in a Chiefs uniform. I just hope to hell we don't see him in 2018 in another AFC West uniform. But my confidence in that is not high. The Broncos are a mess at the QB position and I could EASILY see horseface signing Alex. The idea makes me want to PUKE.

If you think what I have written above is anything but sheer and utter madness then read on.....

#5) Let's say Mahomes becomes the starter in 2018 and Alex is gone. IMO Mahomes has the potential to be a TRULY GREAT QB. But from what I have seen the kid is raw. VERY RAW. If he takes over as the starter in 2018 without ever having taken a regular season snap I foresee 2018 being a tough year for the Chiefs. I just worry that he won't be ready that quickly and I have seen A LOT of college talent QBs get ruined by being put into the starter position too quickly.

#6) I'm just plain WORRIED about how this is all going to play out.

WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK????

[Chiefs4life24]

Ehinger can be that stud LG

[brdempsey69]

Ehinger can be that stud LG

I read that Ehinger is rehabbing and getting ready for training camp. Shame that he got hurt last year and didn't get to finish his rookie season. From what I heard, he wasn't bad when he did play.

[ctchiefsfan]

Luck is just one of many examples. Dee Ford sacked Luck 3 times in that ball game last year, which was unprecedented. Luck put up good numbers, but was sacked 41 times and many were drive killers.



I also thought it SUCKED, the way Green's career ended. But, not only that, the way the Chiefs team completely collapsed in 2007, especially their O-Line, starting a six year abyss. And people wonder why some of us were clamoring for O-Lineman to be drafted early and often. Brodie Croyle never had a chance when he got to play. Pioli's first draft pick should have been Tackle Eugene Monroe with Albert kicking inside to his natural LG position.

As for the Chiefs current O-Line, there is room for improvement & development, certainly. There average age is about 25-26. They could still use a stud LG to team with Fisher on the left side & perhaps Swartz and LDT will be better on the right side this year after having played a full year together last season. Morse is a good Center. We'll have to see how they perform this year & hope they improve and that the Chiefs have a solid O-Line when Mahomes takes over.

One good thing about Mahomes is he certainly has no problem tucking the ball away and running with it but he also is always looking for a receiver to throw it to right up until he crosses the LOS.

[JPPT1974]

Think Smith will have one more year to prove himself in 2017. Or he could be gone or traded.

[Eydugstr]

Sorry I'm late to respond to the OP...but there are some things I'd like to point out.

First off, Mahomes wasn't meant to kick Alex to the curb. He was drafted to be Alex's eventual successor. There's a difference. If Alex was getting kicked to the curb, you'd hear a bunch of trade talk, Alex talking to the media, other teams trying to bring in Alex for an interview, etc etc...None of that's happened. While I do think this situation will light a fire under Alex, think it's more out of his age (How many good years does he have left?) than a sense of "I'm competing for my job with the rookie" sort of urgency.

Another thing I'd point out...Let's raise our expectations of what we want in a KC QB. KC really doesn't need another Trent Green, as great as Trent was. What KC needs to find is it's next Len Dawson, or Joe Montana. Guys that won for KC in the postseason. Alex would be in that club. Hoping that Mahomes will join that club, too.

There are some scenarios that could happen...But how will we (the fanbase) react? What if Alex leads the team to a super bowl? What if Alex gets injured, but Bray leads us deep into the postseason, and looks like our next Trent Green? What if Mahomes takes longer than two years to develop?

[ctchiefsfan]

Think Smith will have one more year to prove himself in 2017. Or he could be gone or traded.

Not much doubt about that IMO.

[ctchiefsfan]

Sorry I'm late to respond to the OP...but there are some things I'd like to point out.

First off, Mahomes wasn't meant to kick Alex to the curb. He was drafted to be Alex's eventual successor. There's a difference. If Alex was getting kicked to the curb, you'd hear a bunch of trade talk, Alex talking to the media, other teams trying to bring in Alex for an interview, etc etc...None of that's happened. While I do think this situation will light a fire under Alex, think it's more out of his age (How many good years does he have left?) than a sense of "I'm competing for my job with the rookie" sort of urgency.

There is a difference but it's mostly semantics IMO. But certainly Mahomes was not brought in with the thought of replacing Smith this year. But surely in 2018 or 2019. Though I suspect that Alex's 2018 cap hit of over $20 million is very high on Dorsey's radar. So I suspect that unless Alex takes us to an AFC Championship game or the Super Bowl that this will be the last year we see Alex in a Chiefs uniform unless either A) neither Mahomes nor Bray are viewed as "ready to start" in 2018 or B) Alex reworks his deal to spread that $20+ million in 2018 over 3 years with the understanding that for a good part of those years he will probably be a backup. Just the "feeling" I am getting. We have been in "cap hell" for a while now and Alex's 2018 cap hit is sure to be a tempting target for Dorsey.

Another thing I'd point out...Let's raise our expectations of what we want in a KC QB. KC really doesn't need another Trent Green, as great as Trent was. What KC needs to find is it's next Len Dawson, or Joe Montana. Guys that won for KC in the postseason. Alex would be in that club. Hoping that Mahomes will join that club, too.

AGREED!!!

There are some scenarios that could happen...But how will we (the fanbase) react? What if Alex leads the team to a super bowl?

No doubt in my mind that If Alex gets us to the AFC Championship Game or the Super Bowl this year then he's bought himself a few more years as the starter in KC.

What if Alex gets injured, but Bray leads us deep into the postseason, and looks like our next Trent Green?

That's a scenario I hadn't even thought of. Bray so far has pretty much been an enigma. I saw a report today that in OTAs Bray had been taking reps as the #2. Sort of what I expected since Mahomes seems pretty green, but I just hadn't thought about the idea of Alex getting a serious injury and Bray taking us on a serious post season run. That would certainly complicate the hell out of things at our QB position. But I think it would likely still lead to Alex being gone after this year and we'd wind up with a dogfight between Bray and Mahomes for the starter's spot in 2018. JMO.

What if Mahomes takes longer than two years to develop?

JMO, but I think that is entirely possible. But unless he makes almost no progress this year and Bray shows he is nowhere near ready to start Alex's cap hit in 2018 will mean he is out the door--unless he reworks his contract or gets us to the AFC Championship Game. In Bray and Mahomes we have 2 QBs on the roster that have a 155 MM cannon for an arm. We paid a pretty hefty price to get Mahomes this year and we have been nurse-maiding Bray for 4 years now. If nothing else that tells me that Reid really REALLY wants a QB with an EXPLOSIVE ARM. Odd when you consider that Reid's offense has been largely based on short passes and running. But maybe the leopard (Reid) has changed his spots and wants his legacy to be that he ran the most explosive offense the NFL had ever seen? WOULDN'T THAT BE WEIRD????

[brdempsey69]

................In Bray and Mahomes we have 2 QBs on the roster that have a 155 MM cannon for an arm. We paid a pretty hefty price to get Mahomes this year and we have been nurse-maiding Bray for 4 years now. If nothing else that tells me that Reid really REALLY wants a QB with an EXPLOSIVE ARM. Odd when you consider that Reid's offense has been largely based on short passes and running. But maybe the leopard (Reid) has changed his spots and wants his legacy to be that he ran the most explosive offense the NFL had ever seen? WOULDN'T THAT BE WEIRD????

The Chiefs do have the receivers that can run downfield & get under the passes thrown by a QB with a powerful throwing arm. Plus, remember that .gif I showed, well you can be certain that Reid saw that as well and perhaps many other plays like that one throughout the season.

You can't miss opportunities to take it downfield when it is there & we do know Reid does want his QB's to take it downfield when it's there.

[ctchiefsfan]

The Chiefs do have the receivers that can run downfield & get under the passes thrown by a QB with a powerful throwing arm. Plus, remember that .gif I showed, well you can be certain that Reid saw that as well and perhaps many other plays like that one throughout the season.

You can't miss opportunities to take it downfield when it is there & we do know Reid does want his QB's to take it downfield when it's there.

NO DOUBT! What sort of intrigues me is the idea that Reid seems to be looking for a QB with that cannon arm. What if in 2018 or 2019 we wind up with Mahomes or Bray as #1 and the other as #2? Will Reid open up his offensive scheme in a big way? Or has that offensive scheme always had these "big play" options that Alex simply never saw because he was primarily looking for the short, safe, ball-control pass? I don't know, but it sure will be interesting to see what happens to the Chiefs offense once Mahomes or Bray becomes the starter.

One thing is FOR CERTAIN.....it will be very interesting to see what our Offense looks like once we have a new QB starting. Kind of scary since we've done well with Alex, but one of the knocks on Reid since he came to KC has been....too predictable, dink-and-dunk, too conservative. It will be very interesting to see if that was Reid, Smith or a combination of both.

[brdempsey69]

NO DOUBT! What sort of intrigues me is the idea that Reid seems to be looking for a QB with that cannon arm. What if in 2018 or 2019 we wind up with Mahomes or Bray as #1 and the other as #2? Will Reid open up his offensive scheme in a big way? Or has that offensive scheme always had these "big play" options that Alex simply never saw because he was primarily looking for the short, safe, ball-control pass? I don't know, but it sure will be interesting to see what happens to the Chiefs offense once Mahomes or Bray becomes the starter.

One thing is FOR CERTAIN.....it will be very interesting to see what our Offense looks like once we have a new QB starting. Kind of scary since we've done well with Alex, but one of the knocks on Reid since he came to KC has been....too predictable, dink-and-dunk, too conservative. It will be very interesting to see if that was Reid, Smith or a combination of both.

I looked at the stats for the Eagles in Reid's last years in Philly and I don't see any evidence to indicate there was an excessive amount of dink-and-dunk. Plus, I never heard much of anything in the way of Philly fans complaining that their Offense was too conservative. Philly fans did complain about clock management. I believe this is mostly on Smith and the .gif image was one example, as many have criticized Reid's play-calling, but he called the right play in that situation & Hill wasn't just open on the play, he was wide-open and uncovered.