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Thread: An IMPORTANT reflection on our season.

  1. #1
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    Default An IMPORTANT reflection on our season.


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    Thanks to TR's EXCELLENT game day thread I noticed some things that are REALLY CRAZY about this season. Thought I should pass them along....

    #1) Alex has 3,239 yards passing on the season. That is only 263 yards short of his best ever for a 16 game season. So barring injury or him looking like poop for the next four games he will likely have the best season of his career, pass 4,000 yards passing for the first time in his career and is on track for about 4,300 yards passing for the season. That would be right about 800 yards BETTER than his previous best.

    #2) Kareem Hunt has 930 yards rushing so again he'll probably go way over 1,000 yards rushing.

    #3) Tyreek Hill has 911 yards receiving. So he is going to go over 1,00 yards receiving.

    #4) Travis Kelce has 871 yards receiving. So he will likely have over 1,000 yards receiving.

    So here is what all that means....Our QB is going to have FAR AND AWAY the best season of his career; we're going to have a WR and a TE with over 1,000 yards receiving each and we're going to have a RB with over 1,000 yards rushing.

    And our season has been tanking. WELL...I sure as hell know whose fault it ISN'T. ​The fault does not belong to the offense.

  2. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chiefs4life24 View Post
    I could've been drafting by committee
    Could be. But I think we know that the future of the Chiefs lies in making those kind of picks. The 1st and 2cond round picks get all the attention, but the strength of our suddenly rejuvenated offense has been found in 3 guys that averaged a mid to high 3rd round pick. I hope we didn't screw ourselves when we dumped Dorsey.

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    We will find out if the players Veach drafts are fundamentally different players than Dorsey guys

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    Quote Originally Posted by ctchiefsfan View Post
    OK......time to take a look at our 7 wins. As I think most of us would agree for the previous 4 years our Defense and Special Teams have to a substantial extent carried the team but this year based on the numbers the Offense has been putting up that doesn't seem to be the case so much. So having done my amateurish analysis of our 6 losses I'm going to take an unemotional look at our 7 wins based on stats and see what I come up with.

    Chiefs 42 Patriots 27. Smith 28/35 (80%) 4 TDs 0 INT. 368 yards Rating 148.6. Rushing 185 yards in 27 attempts. Brady 16/36 0 TDs 0 INT. 267 yards. Rate 70. Rushing 124 yards in 35 attempts. Alex had an excellent game. Our rushing game was fantastic. The Offense collected 553 yards and the Defense held the Pats to 391 yards. A team win without a doubt, but I think the Offense gets the lion's share of the credit for this win. Putting up 553 yards against the Patriots is a stunning accomplishment. The Defense did a fine job with the "bend but don't break" giving up 391 yards for 27 points, but mostly when a team scores 27 points they will win the game and certainly not get beaten by 15. Special credit should go to the Offensive line for giving Alex time to throw and opening holes for 185 yards rushing. Also worth noting, this was a very "up-tempo" game. The Chiefs ran 62 plays and the Pats ran 71 plays.

    Chiefs 27 Eagles 20. Smith 21/28 (75%) 1 TDs 0 INT. 251 yards Rating 113.8. Rushing 189 net yards in 25 attempts. Wentz 25/46 (54.3%) 2 TDs 1 INT. 333 yards. Rate 83. Rushing 107 yards in 17 attempts. A close game where the Eagles got 77 more yards than the Chiefs. IMO the difference here was the INT by the Defense and the "bend but don't break" defense but on balance I think this is team win. Both sides played very good tough football. Of note....about 17% fewer plays than the Patriots game.

    Chiefs 24 Chargers 10. Smith 16/21 (76.2%) 2 TDs 0 INT. 155 yards Rating 128.1. Rushing 112 yards in 25 attempts. Rivers 20/40 (50%) 0 TDs 3 INT. 237 yards. Rate 37.2. Rushing 104 yards in 26 attempts. A low scoring game where neither side got a lot going on Offense. The Chargers got 74 more yards than the Chiefs but scored 14 fewer points. I'm calling this a win by the Defense. 3 INTs was the difference here.

    Chiefs 29 Redskins 20. Smith 27/37 (73%) 1 TD 0 INT. 293 yards Rating 104.9. Rushing 168 yards in 31 attempts. Cousins 14/24 (58.3%) 2 TDs 0 INT. 220 yards. Rate 116.7. Rushing 111 yards in 26 attempts.We just plain outplayed the Redskins on both sides of the ball. The game was not as close as the score. Our Offense collected 130 more yards than the Redskins and we had 68 Offensive plays to their 50. 100% a team win.

    Chiefs 42 Texans 34. Smith 29/37 (73%) 3 TD 0 INT. 324 yards Rating 130.2. Rushing 127 yards in 35 attempts. Watson 16/31 (51.6%) 5 TDs 0 INT. 261 yards. Rate 119.8. Rushing 144 yards in 22 attempts. Strange game. Both sides got over 400 yards total Offense. Watson got 5 TD passes on just 16 completions but his completion % of 51.6% SUCKS. CRAZY. This win belongs to the Offense.

    Chiefs 29 Broncos 19. Smith 14/31 (45.2%) 1 TD 0 INT. 202 yards Rating 77.6. Rushing 79 yards in 26 attempts. Siemian 19/36 (52.8%) 1 TDs 3 INT. 198 yards. Rate 43.5. Rushing 177 yards in 31 attempts. The Broncos got 94 more total yards on Offense than the Chiefs. The Chiefs Offense flat out sucked with only 281 yards of offense. This win belongs to the Defense for their 3 INTs.

    Chiefs 26 Raiders 15. Smith 20/34 (58.8%) 0 TD 1 INT. 268 yards Rating 71.7. Rushing 165 yards in 35 attempts. Carr 24/41 (58.5%) 1 TDs 2 INT. 211 yards. Rate 60.1. Rushing 70 yards in 11 attempts. Chiefs got 433 yards on offense to 281 yards for the Raiders. The Defense got 2 picks. ​A fine game by both sides and this is a 100% team win.

    Summary, Conclusions and random thoughts....

    So by my calculations (and they are worth what you paid for them) that is 2 of our 7 wins won by the Offense, 2 won by the Defense and 3 that were just all around team wins. When you compare that with my analysis of our losses that makes everything pretty much even-steven. In short, we can't blame 7-6 on the Defense. So my conclusion is that while many of us felt the losses were the Defense's fault that was based on the last 4 years we simply had excessive expectations of our Defense. They are still very good they just aren't as good as we have become used to. As a result we simply need more from our offense in order to get a win.

    On the subject of playcalling, Reid, Nagy and the rushing game....One thing seems to be CLEAR. If we rush the ball more than 25 times per game we pretty much always win. We've only had 1 loss this year when we ran the ball more than 25 times and that was against the Giants. Interestingly, in our 7 wins we averaged 29.1 rushing attempts per game and never had a winning game with less than 25 carries. In our losing games we had an average of 19 carries per game. Now before anyone goes crazy and says we have to fire Reid, I'd like to point out that during our 5 game winning streak with Reid calling the plays, we averaged 28.6 rushes per game so it's not like Reid is a "pass-happy" fool. In fact, during the 5 game winning streak with Reid calling all the plays, we ran the ball 47.5% of the time. So Reid's playcalling and game plans are DAMNED GOOD just sometimes he simply loses his head and once he accumulates 2 or more losses he simply goes pass-crazy. As to Nagy....we're all very happy he is doing the playcalling (since we have scored 57 points in 2 games--28.5 points per game) but I'll point out that in the Jets loss (called by Nagy) we only ran 10 rushing plays (our lowest total of the season) and Nagy in 2 games has averaged 22.5 rushes per game so IMO the jury is still out on Nagy as a playcaller. We'll know more after the next 3 games--assuming Nagy continues to call the plays.

    So after all that WHY THE HELL ARE WE 7-6? Because the NFL wants "PARITY" and they have achieved it. There are very few GREAT teams and very few truly crappy teams. A 6-10 to 10-6 record is what almost everybody does. Under Reid we are doing a bit better than the top end of "normal". It's not what you or I want but it is a HELL OF A LOT BETTER than our average from 1998-2012 (15 years) which was 7-9. Not counting this year (which isn't over yet) Reid's average is 10.75-5.25. I like that one hell of a lot better than 7-9.


    ​In closing, I will add one thought.....Under 4 years of Reid we have not had a losing season whereas in the previous 15 years we had 10 losing seasons.

    Absolutely agree! I enjoyed reading your analysis. I don't normally take too much time with posts quite that long, but it was a great read and I thought I owed it ya especially after asking for it.

  5. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chiefster View Post
    Absolutely agree! I enjoyed reading your analysis. I don't normally take too much time with posts quite that long, but it was a great read and I thought I owed it ya especially after asking for it.
    No worries man. Glad you enjoyed it. I'm a guy that likes playing with numbers. Made my living most of my life playing with numbers so I enjoyed doing those two posts. I use numbers to try to better understand our Chiefs.

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