Let's talk about what Alex Smith is worth on the trade market.

[ctchiefsfan]

As Bike so aptly pointed out in the Alex to the Pro Bowl thread we NEED draft picks and we NEED cap space. And the easiest way to probably get some of both is to trade our Pro Bowl QB. According to overthecap.com trading Alex saves us $17 million in cap space. That ain't chump change. Cutting Tamba Hali (GOD! I hate saying that!) saves us another $8 million in cap space. So with just 2 moves we can go from being something like $5 million over the cap in 2018 to having something like $20 million in cap space. Doesn't make us rich, but it surely would make us a lot better off. Of course, we can cut Alex (I HATE saying that) but that doesn't solve our draft pick problem.

So we need to trade Alex. So the obvious question is "WHAT CAN WE GET FOR HIM?" I'd like to hear y'alls thoughts on what you think the best we have a chance of getting for him is and what you think the lowest offer we should honestly consider is. I'll do my best to start the ball rolling.

Of course, I want a mid-to-high first round and a mid-to-high 2cond round pick for him. But then...I want to win the power ball and bang a supermodel too and that ain't a gonna happen. So here are my thoughts....The day of our game against the Titans the idea of 2 second round picks (what we paid to get Alex) was floated and I'd be very happy with that. But a part of me would prefer 2 picks in the 2018 draft to 1 pick in 2018 and another in 2019. After all, our NEED for picks is NOW. So I'd be very happy with a 2cond and a 3rd in 2018. That would put us back in halfway decent shape for the 2018 draft.

As to the lowest we should take...I think we'll cut him if we can't trade him so getting ANYTHING is better than nothing. And because every team in the league probably thinks we'll probably cut him I suspect we'll get a few offers from some "bargain shoppers". So I think we should listen to ANY offers but that any offer less than a 2cond round pick we should tell them "I'll think about it". I mean....we can probably "fire-sale" him for a 5th round pick in the pre-season if the choice is that or cutting him and getting nothing.

What do y'all think?

[Bike]

That is EXACTLY the worry. They all know we want to get rid of his cap hit. But the flip side to that coin is that there are several teams out there that either suck or are sort of a 6-10 to maybe 9-7 type team but haven't got anything but a loser at QB and have lots of picks and lots of cap space...Cleveland and Buffalo come immediately come to mind. So they have the treasure and they NEED to get to get a damned good QB and QBs like Alex don't grow on trees. Unless I'm mistaken he had the highest rating of any QB this season...yes, even higher than Brady.

So there *should* be several teams out there that want and need Alex and have the picks and cash to buy him. And yeah...they pretty much know that if they don't trade for him we'll cut him just for the cap space, but then they will wind up in a cap space bidding war where they might wind up having to offer $90 million or more over 3 years with probably $55 million guaranteed to get him. That's a big risk to take on a guy that will be 34 at the start of next season.

Being logical, nobody really wants him for just the 1 year he has left on his contract. And Alex doesn't really want to become a free Agent coming off 1 season with a 2cond or 3rd tier team and now being 35 in 2019. Alex wants 1 more BIG CONTRACT. So you trade for Alex and then ask him to renegotiate for a 3 year deal with maybe $40-$45 million guaranteed with only a $12 million cap hit in 2018. Alex would probably take it because it get's him an extra $20-$25 million in guaranteed money. BOOM! You've just locked in a damned good QB for 3 years with the ability to toss him after 2 years if he doesn't work out and only having to eat maybe $8-$15 million in dead money.

So there is really no way of telling what--if anything--we can get for him, but I think we have a very good chance of getting some good value for him. Not what we'd like but good value none-the-less.

Excellent explanation, thank you.

[matthewschiefs]

Like CT mentioned the league knows that with the cap hit the Chiefs are going to have to cut him. I really don't think that we will get a top pick for him.

But after having the season he had and the start of the playoff game before Andy went all Andy with the screens (One day I'll get over it LOL) I think now we will get SOMETHING for him but my top is 3rd rounder. I just don't see anymore than that with his cap hit being well known

[Bike]

Like CT mentioned the league knows that with the cap hit the Chiefs are going to have to cut him. I really don't think that we will get a top pick for him.

But after having the season he had and the start of the playoff game before Andy went all Andy with the screens (One day I'll get over it LOL) I think now we will get SOMETHING for him but my top is 3rd rounder. I just don't see anymore than that with his cap hit being well known

Well, the Chiefs are gonna have to throw it out there that they just might keep Smith for the remainder of his contract and reduce the cap elsewhere. We need a mid 2nd and a 3rd pick at least out of this. Another year of Smith grooming Mahomes would be ideal as far as I'm concerned. I doubt this happens, but the pot needs to be stirred to get some picks thrown our way.

[Chiefs4life24]

at the very least we will get 2 2nd rounders for him otherwise nothing

[Bike]

Well, let's talk about our sucky cap situation for a second.
2 players that will most certainly be gone with zero dead money:
Revis - 4.5 mil cap hit
Ford - 8.7 mil cap hit
There's over 13 mil right there.
Players that could, or should be released:
Hali - 9.4 - 1.7 dead money
Johnson - 10.2 - 2.2 dead money
Bailey - 8 - 2 dead money
Parker - 7 - 2 dead money
Everybody else that is taking up big chunks of cap space really has too much dead cap to outright release.
So there is 49 million freed up right there. And that's just outright releases. We should be able to trade one or two of those guys. And if we could restructure Houston and Fisher, that could free up some more.
Berry has a whopping 25 mil dead cap space, so he ain't going nowhere.
Doable? I dunno.
But that is one way to keep Smith for the remainder of his contract.

[ctchiefsfan]

Well, the Chiefs are gonna have to throw it out there that they just might keep Smith for the remainder of his contract and reduce the cap elsewhere. We need a mid 2nd and a 3rd pick at least out of this. Another year of Smith grooming Mahomes would be ideal as far as I'm concerned. I doubt this happens, but the pot needs to be stirred to get some picks thrown our way.

Bike...You've brought up a fascinating possibility. One that has been floating around in my head with no particular shape and you sort of chrystalized it for me. Bear with me for a moment please.....

We are going to eat $3.6 million on Alex's contract no matter what. Then there is a roster bonus of $2 million so if we put him on the 53 man roster he now costs us $5.6 million and somewhere there is a $500K workout bonus. But that still leaves us with $14.5 to $15 million in cap savings if we put him on the roster but trade him before the preseason or it might be week 1....not quite sure on the date. So that extra $2 million would buy us several more weeks to try to make deal but still get some big cap savings and hopefully an important pick in 2019. So we could keep him through the pre-season and maybe save about $11.5 million on the cap hit. How do we get under the cap enough to pay for our draft picks? Well....Tamba being gone will save $8 million so that almost covers our deficit and our draft picks. And since we all know that good QBs get injured in the pre-season and early season on a regular basis that means an Alex Smith that nobody will bid for in July might suddenly have HUGE VALUE in August because we held on to him a little longer or on any weekend when a "name" QB went down up to the trade deadline and still in theory save about $8.5 million on the cap. You really brought up an interesting point. We can essentially keep Alex on the market up to the trade deadline and still save about $8 million which might come in real handy just before the trade deadline.

Of course I'm going a bit beyond my knowledge here, but by my understanding of how NFL contracts work, the above is all possible. The longer you keep him the less cap space you save but maybe his value triples if Carson Wentz or someone similar goes down in week 2?

Playing around with these ideas is FUN!

[Bike]

Bike...You've brought up a fascinating possibility. One that has been floating around in my head with no particular shape and you sort of chrystalized it for me. Bear with me for a moment please.....

We are going to eat $3.6 million on Alex's contract no matter what. Then there is a roster bonus of $2 million so if we put him on the 53 man roster he now costs us $5.6 million and somewhere there is a $500K workout bonus. But that still leaves us with $14.5 to $15 million in cap savings if we put him on the roster but trade him before the preseason or it might be week 1....not quite sure on the date. So that extra $2 million would buy us several more weeks to try to make deal but still get some big cap savings and hopefully an important pick in 2019. So we could keep him through the pre-season and maybe save about $11.5 million on the cap hit. How do we get under the cap enough to pay for our draft picks? Well....Tamba being gone will save $8 million so that almost covers our deficit and our draft picks. And since we all know that good QBs get injured in the pre-season and early season on a regular basis that means an Alex Smith that nobody will bid for in July might suddenly have HUGE VALUE in August because we held on to him a little longer or on any weekend when a "name" QB went down up to the trade deadline and still in theory save about $8.5 million on the cap. You really brought up an interesting point. We can essentially keep Alex on the market up to the trade deadline and still save about $8 million which might come in real handy just before the trade deadline.

Of course I'm going a bit beyond my knowledge here, but by my understanding of how NFL contracts work, the above is all possible. The longer you keep him the less cap space you save but maybe his value triples if Carson Wentz or someone similar goes down in week 2?

Playing around with these ideas is FUN!

You bet! But here's another thought. If Reid can't trade Smith for the picks he wants - Smith stays. For all we know, Reid has no intention of letting Smith go. I don't think there is any way on earth the Chiefs release Smith outright. There are other ways to get our cap down per my previous post.
We shall see!

[matthewschiefs]

Well, let's talk about our sucky cap situation for a second.
2 players that will most certainly be gone with zero dead money:
Revis - 4.5 mil cap hit
Ford - 8.7 mil cap hit
There's over 13 mil right there.
Players that could, or should be released:
Hali - 9.4 - 1.7 dead money
Johnson - 10.2 - 2.2 dead money
Bailey - 8 - 2 dead money
Parker - 7 - 2 dead money
Everybody else that is taking up big chunks of cap space really has too much dead cap to outright release.
So there is 49 million freed up right there. And that's just outright releases. We should be able to trade one or two of those guys. And if we could restructure Houston and Fisher, that could free up some more.
Berry has a whopping 25 mil dead cap space, so he ain't going nowhere.
Doable? I dunno.
But that is one way to keep Smith for the remainder of his contract.

Great info here.


Guess it's possible to keep him around I just don't see them actually doing it. The Mahomes era is beginning

[Bike]

Great info here.


Guess it's possible to keep him around I just don't see them actually doing it. The Mahomes era is beginning

I hear ya. But another year behind Smith can only help Mahomes. Remember, Aaron Rodgers sat for three years behind Farve...

[jason1981]

We cam trade alex and rb ware to the browns who we all know dorsey knows both these players strengths. Browms have alot of picks to give.