Thanks, Sling.
Here are my picks for this week:
DEN @ KC - KC - The donkeys are the worst team in the league at defending the rush while the Chiefs have not run the ball very well so far this year. With the foot injury to Johnson, the burden of running the football falls dually on the shoulders of Priest Holmes and Kolby Smith. If Priest looks like the same back he was a few years ago, it could be a long day for Denver.
The Chiefs are 3-0 vs. the AFC West at home under coach Herm Edwards. TE Tony Gonzalez is averaging 94.2 receiving yards per game in past four (377 total yards). Gonzalez posted his 21st 100-yard game of of his hall-of-fame career last week. Both teams will have the same QB's under center that they started the season with. Herm Edwards has not yet made the decision to go to the younger Croyle for a spark and Jay Cutler's concussion last week against Detroit has not been deemed serious enough to keep him out of this week's game against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs are 11-1 against AFC West foes at Arrowhead dating back to 2003, including a streak of eight consecutive wins. That streak ties Indianapolis for the longest active stretch of home division wins in the league. Kansas City began its home winning streak against AFC West foes with a 45-17 victory vs. Denver (12/19/04) and hasn’t lost at home to an AFC West foe since dropping a 34-31 decision vs. San Diego (11/28/04).
KC has already registered division road wins at San Diego and at Oakland this season and will be seeking to win its first three division contests of the year since winning five straight to begin the 2003 campaign. KC is 6-2 against division opponents under Herm Edwards, while Denver is 1-4 in its last five AFC West contests. The Chiefs are 15-5 at home since the start of the 2005 campaign, while Denver is 11-8 on the road over the same span.
Chiefs QB Damon Huard owns a 5-2 record as the Chiefs starter at Arrowhead. In those seven contests, he has connected on 133 of 201 throws (66.2%) for 1,631 yards with 10 TDs and just three INTs, numbers that translate into a 101.4 rating. Huard has produced a rating of 100.0 or better in all five of his victories as a starter at Arrowhead. Denver’s defense ranks 32nd in the league, permitting opposing passers to compile a 105.4 rating and has allowed the last six QBs it has faced to accumulate a 100.0+ rating game.
The Broncos have allowed 14 TD passes and have forced just two INTs in their last six contests, permitting a passer rating of 122.6 in those games. Denver has allowed 15 TD passes on the season. Only Cincinnati (20) and Cleveland (20) have permitted more. KC owns a 7-2 record under Huard in contests when he doesn’t suffer an INT, including all five of his home wins. Denver has forced six INTs in its three wins and owns no INTs in its five losses. Only four clubs own fewer INTs than the Broncos this season.
During the Chiefs four-game home winning streak against Denver, KC’s defense has limited the Broncos to a 76.3 composite passer rating, forcing five INTs and registering 9.0 sacks. The Chiefs have produced 63.6% (14.0 of 22.0) of their sacks at Arrowhead this season. Dating back to 2002, KC boasts a 24-2 (.923) record at home when it registers 2.0 or more sacks, including a pair of victories over the Broncos. Only seven teams have sacked opposing passers more frequently than Kansas City. The Chiefs are 30-4 (.882) at Arrowhead dating back to ‘95 when the club forces two or more INTs, including a perfect 4-0 mark vs. Denver. Kansas City has recorded a pair of pickoffs in four games this season and has limited opposing passers to a 77.3 rating through eight games.
RB Priest Holmes owns four 100-yard rushing games vs. Denver, his highest total against any foe as a member of the Chiefs. Holmes’ last 100-yard outing against the Broncos was a 26-carry, 151-yard, three-TD performance at Denver (9/12/04).
Kansas City will face a Denver defense that ranks 32nd in the league, allowing 161.5 rushing ypg. Dating back to 2002, the Broncos are 4-15 (.211) when permitting a 100-yard rusher, including a 1-3 mark in 2007. Denver has lost seven of its last eight contests when relinquishing two or more rushing TDs. Dating back to 2001, KC is 24-3 (.889) when scoring two or more rushing TDs at home, including 11 consecutive wins. Only Oakland (12) and Cincinnati (12) have allowed more runs of 20+ yards than Denver (11) this season.
KC has not permitted an individual 100-yard rusher in 26 of its last 27 contests at Arrowhead. The Broncos rank 13th in the NFL in rushing (114.9 ypg) and have benefited from a 100-yard performance by RB Travis Henry in two of their three victories in 2007.
The Chiefs are 14-5 (.737) against the Broncos at Arrowhead in regular season games played after November 1st.
BUF @ MIA - BUF - With wins in four of their last five games, the Bills have thrust themselves into the mix in the AFC playoff race while the Dolphins are still trying to get their first win of the season. In six games vs. Miami, WR Lee Evans has averaged 21.6 yards per catch (19 receptions, 410 yards) and has six TDs (most vs. any opponent). Evans had a season-best 165 yards last week, and has averaged 151.5 receiving yards in the past two games.
MIN @ GB - GB - Green Bay has won the past three matchups, including a 23-16 triumph in the Metrodome in Week 4. The Packers hold a 3-2 edge in the series since a 2004 playoff loss to the Vikings at Lambeau Field. The Vikings have the best rushing defense in the league and the worst passing defense while the Packers have the worst rushing offense and one of the NFL's best passing attacks with a good defense that is well-balanced. This is really a game of the Packers' strengths against the Vikings' weaknesses.
The Packers have won 11 of their last 12. WR Donald Driver has a reception in 88 consecutive games, the second-longest streak in team history (Sterling Sharpe, 103). DE Aaron Kampman has 24½ sacks in the past 24 games, and has eight sacks in the past five against the Vikings.
Meanwhile, RB Adrian Peterson is the first rookie in NFL history with two games of 200-plus yards. He leads the league with 1,036 yards and is on pace for 2,072 yards, which would pass Eric Dickerson's rookie record (1,808). He also set the NFL record for rushing yards in a single game last week against San Diego with 296 yards on the ground, breaking the mark previously set by Jamal Lewis.
CLE @ PIT - PIT - The Browns haven't won four straight since 1994. Pittsburgh has won 13 of the past 14, including a 34-7 blowout at Cleveland in Week 1. In the Browns’ five wins, QB Derek Anderson has completed 95 of 149 passes (63.8 pct.) for 1,389 yards with 13 TDs, with just three interceptions and a 114.8 passer rating while Rothlesberger tied a franchise mark with five touchdown passes last week and aims for his 14th consecutive game with a TD pass.
This game will probably come down to defense as the Steelers boast one of the top defensive units in the league while the Browns are among the worst. The Steelers also have one of the premier rushing attacks in the league which enables them to control and manage the clock more effectively. Cleveland's offense has played well but they can't put up very many points if they don't have the ball very much.
STL @ NO - NO - The Saints are beginning to look impressive again after winning their last four in a row to bring themselves up to .500 after an 0-4 start to the 2007 campaign. The Rams have yet to get their first win of the season but they will be able to make use of Jackson again in their offense as he is back from his injury now. However, the Rams are obviously a reeling team while the Saints will be coming into this game with confidence and intensity, being only one game back from the division-leading Bucs in the NFC South. Drew Brees has completed 113 of 158 passes (71.5 pct.) for 1,246 yards with 11 TDs vs. 1 INT for 115.1 passer rating in past four games. When Brees has rating of 110-plus, his teams are 19-2 (.905).
JAC @ TEN - TEN - The Titans' defense now ranks
second overall. Over the past two weeks, it has allowed an average of just 213 total yards per game, while sacking the opposing quarterback 12 times and forcing four turnovers. Vince Young has a 13-7 (.650) record as a starter and has four rushing TDs in seven division games.
Jacksonville got destroyed by the Saints last week. Even though the Saints have turned their play around since the beginning of the season, there is no way they should have handled Jacksonville the way they did. It seems that the loss to the Colts may have hurt this team's confidence more than it should have.
PHI @ WAS - PHI - With the chances of defending their NFC East title just about vanished after Sunday's loss to Dallas, the Eagles must now focus on getting back into the NFC wild-card race. At 3-5, they trail the Lions by three games in the NFC with eight games to go and they can't afford any more losses if they hope to forge a serious run. Courtesy of its 5-3 record, Washington has positioned itself for a potential postseason run. A home loss to the Eagles, though, and the Redskins risk falling out of the picture with tough road games against Dallas and Tampa Bay up next. The 'skins barely scraped by the pretty much QB-less Jets last week by only three points. This is not impressive. Especially right after getting demolished by the Patriots they way they did.
The Eagles got schooled by the Cowboys last week but Donovan McNabb has won seven of his past nine starts against Washington, passing for 2,209 yards, 16 TDs and eight interceptions. If the Eagles can muster up some of what they showed in their 56-point, week 3 performance against Detroit, they could make it another embarassing weekend for the Redskins.
Week 10 picks
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Originally Posted by rbedgood
Thanks for all the yards, TDs, and memories, Priest!
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