Hardcore player evaluation.

[texaschief]

How bout a little group fun?

If this team is REALLY gonna take a couple years and "major reconstructive surgery" over that span to become a contender again, who should be on and stay on this team? Who will be too old when we are good? Who could we trade now to bring more draft picks?

Here's some fun to get started that will surely get some feathers ruffled.

Trade Tony Gonzales: He's been the ultimate Chief and it's a shame Peterson couldn't get him a ring. The best way he can do that now is to trade him to a contender for a #1 pick or a young, good player.

Trade Jared Allen: Negotiate a sign and trade with Allen. Tell him to list 10 teams he would accept a trade to and get the best possible bounty you can for arguably the best pass rusher in league. Perhaps a first rounder and more.

Trade Larry Johnson: Get ANYTHING you can for him. Huge contract with big questions after an injury laden 2007. This one may be best to move next season.

I think those 3 players, the best the Chiefs have to offer in the prime of their careers would bring huge bounty to help with the rebuilding. Bringing in a bunch of first rounders and more young players may require just one more "rebuilding year.

So, who else should stay and who else should go?

[texaschief]

??? Declining ??? Seriously?? didn't he have 100 catches this year?

YR REC YDS TD AVG
97 33 368 2 11.2
98 59 621 2 10.5
99 76 849 11 11.2
00 93 1203 9 12.9
01 73 917 6 12.6
02 63 773 7 12.3
03 71 916 10 12.9
04 102 1258 7 12.3
05 78 905 2 11.6
06 73 900 5 12.3
07 99 1172 5 11.8

Really? Am i the only one who sees a down turn in our 31 yr. old TE? 10, 7, 2, 5 and 5 are his TD numbers after 11, 9, 6 and 10 the previous 4 years. Looking at his numbers this year, it kinda puts a dent in the whole "we never called play actions" argument. Herm threw to him second most than any other year during Tony's career. But recieving THAT many passes and he only avg 11.8 when he had been averaging 12.4 over the previous 7 seasons might indicate a slope.

Still, no downturn? hmm. Just because he was thrown the ball more this season doesn't mean he's still operating in his prime. What is he doing with the ball after he gets it?

[texaschief]

Assuming that none of these drafted players turn out to be another Sims, Medlock or other busted draft pick

ever the pessimist eh Canada? If you go back and read my post, i factored in those "busts."

[prough91]

YR REC YDS TD AVG
97 33 368 2 11.2
98 59 621 2 10.5
99 76 849 11 11.2
00 93 1203 9 12.9
01 73 917 6 12.6
02 63 773 7 12.3
03 71 916 10 12.9
04 102 1258 7 12.3
05 78 905 2 11.6
06 73 900 5 12.3
07 99 1172 5 11.8

Really? Am i the only one who sees a down turn in our 31 yr. old TE? 10, 7, 2, 5 and 5 are his TD numbers after 11, 9, 6 and 10 the previous 4 years. Looking at his numbers this year, it kinda puts a dent in the whole "we never called play actions" argument. Herm threw to him second most than any other year during Tony's career. But recieving THAT many passes and he only avg 11.8 when he had been averaging 12.4 over the previous 7 seasons.

Still, no downturn? hmm. Just because he was thrown the ball more this season doesn't mean he's still operating in his prime. What is he doing with the ball after he gets it?

He generally had 3 seconds to get open. How far down the field can a guy get in three seconds? After going to ESPN so I could make sense of those stats, I can't really see a downturn. That's barely over a half a yard. If he continues declining at that rate, he'll be ready to retire in 18 years.

[hermhater]

YR REC YDS TD AVG
97 33 368 2 11.2
98 59 621 2 10.5
99 76 849 11 11.2
00 93 1203 9 12.9
01 73 917 6 12.6
02 63 773 7 12.3
03 71 916 10 12.9
04 102 1258 7 12.3
05 78 905 2 11.6
06 73 900 5 12.3
07 99 1172 5 11.8

Really? Am i the only one who sees a down turn in our 31 yr. old TE? 10, 7, 2, 5 and 5 are his TD numbers after 11, 9, 6 and 10 the previous 4 years. Looking at his numbers this year, it kinda puts a dent in the whole "we never called play actions" argument. Herm threw to him second most than any other year during Tony's career. But recieving THAT many passes and he only avg 11.8 when he had been averaging 12.4 over the previous 7 seasons might indicate a slope.

Still, no downturn? hmm. Just because he was thrown the ball more this season doesn't mean he's still operating in his prime. What is he doing with the ball after he gets it?

He is dragging 3 or 4 guys with him for another 5 or 6 yards.

This is while he is being double, and sometimes triple teamed.

When you're team rarely reaches the red zone it is much harder for a TE to catch a TD pass.

Nice research though.

[texaschief]

He generally had 3 seconds to get open. How far down the field can a guy get in three seconds? After going to ESPN so I could make sense of those stats, I can't really see a downturn. That's barely over a half a yard. If he continues declining at that rate, he'll be ready to retire in 18 years.

Tony Gonzalez revolutionized the position. Soon, the NFL is going to be flooded with Gates, Winslow Jr., Alex Smith, Jeremy Shockey, Vernon Davis, Shannon Sharpe, Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez type players. Tony is no aberration. Hell, you're about to see two BIG TIGHT ENDS coming out of Oklahoma and Texas either this draft or the next.

[hermhater]

Tony Gonzalez revolutionized the position. Soon, the NFL is going to be flooded with Gates, Winslow Jr., Alex Smith, Jeremy Shockey, Vernon Davis, Shannon Sharpe, Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez type players. Tony is no aberration. Hell, you're about to see two BIG TIGHT ENDS coming out of Oklahoma and Texas either this draft or the next.

Tony is a one of a kind.

You sound like Herm is going to be drafting skill O players left and right.

[Canada]

ever the pessimist eh Canada? If you go back and read my post, i factored in those "busts."

do you know what pessimism is?? You say I am a pessimist, but I am the guy who said 12 wins this year, I am the guy who pulled for playoffs until there was no possibility, I am the guy who hope Chan Gailey is successful. That is called Optimistic. Disagreeing with you does not make me a pessimist...it makes me right!!

[prough91]

Tony Gonzalez revolutionized the position. Soon, the NFL is going to be flooded with Gates, Winslow Jr., Alex Smith, Jeremy Shockey, Vernon Davis, Shannon Sharpe, Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez type players. Tony is no aberration. Hell, you're about to see two BIG TIGHT ENDS coming out of Oklahoma and Texas either this draft or the next.

You listed 7 TE's that are still playing. That means 21% of the teams in the NFL have players you put on par with T.G. Gonzalez revolutionized the TE position a long time ago, I wouldn't consider that an influx. Also, out of the players you named, the only one with stats even comparable to T.G. are Sharpe and Gates.

[Canada]

YR REC YDS TD AVG
97 33 368 2 11.2
98 59 621 2 10.5
99 76 849 11 11.2
00 93 1203 9 12.9
01 73 917 6 12.6
02 63 773 7 12.3
03 71 916 10 12.9
04 102 1258 7 12.3
05 78 905 2 11.6
06 73 900 5 12.3
07 99 1172 5 11.8

Really? Am i the only one who sees a down turn in our 31 yr. old TE? 10, 7, 2, 5 and 5 are his TD numbers after 11, 9, 6 and 10 the previous 4 years. Looking at his numbers this year, it kinda puts a dent in the whole "we never called play actions" argument. Herm threw to him second most than any other year during Tony's career. But recieving THAT many passes and he only avg 11.8 when he had been averaging 12.4 over the previous 7 seasons might indicate a slope.

Still, no downturn? hmm. Just because he was thrown the ball more this season doesn't mean he's still operating in his prime. What is he doing with the ball after he gets it?

Put those TD numbers into the right perspective. How many TD did the Chiefs score? If averaging 0.6 yards per catch less over the last 7 seasons is a slope then you are right. However to me it look as though he is good for 70-80 catches a season, 900-1000yards and a first down every time he catches it. Dosen't sound like he is declining at all. It's the offensive scheme that is declining.

[texaschief]

do you know what pessimism is?? You say I am a pessimist, but I am the guy who said 12 wins this year, I am the guy who pulled for playoffs until there was no possibility, I am the guy who hope Chan Gailey is successful. That is called Optimistic. Disagreeing with you does not make me a pessimist...it makes me right!!

Dude, you're in denial if you think you're not a pessimist. You bash the team left and right, paint your head red and call yourself a fan. All you know how to do is run down the organization.

Please show me where i've been pessimistic. Show me where i siad i hope or think Chan falls on his face.

Sometimes I think I'm the only optomist on this site. All you see is doom and gloom with this team. Other than Jared Allen and Tony Gonzalez, you can't say one positive thing about this team.

You listed 7 TE's that are still playing. That means 21% of the teams in the NFL have players you put on par with T.G. Gonzalez revolutionized the TE position a long time ago, I wouldn't consider that an influx. Also, out of the players you named, the only one with stats even comparable to T.G. are Sharpe and Gates.

Winslow has had ONE full season, Smith has had 3 full seasons, Davis has had ONE full season and Shockey is a dominant TE when he's healthy. Of course they're not going to have the same numbers as TG.

And yes, as you look around the NFL, the talent at TE has sky rocketed. Dont act.