Top QB Draft Prospect
Expert: Top player and top NFL prospect? Bradford
Tebow, McCoy not projected as good pros, but Oklahoma QB may be Brady
ASK THE NFL EXPERT
By Dan Pompei
updated 5:13 p.m. CT, Wed., Dec. 10, 2008
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It may be a mystery to many fans, but the best college players often do not make the best pros.
Of the past 10 Heisman Trophy winners (not including Tim Tebow, who still is in college), only Charles Woodson and Ricky Williams have made it to the Pro Bowl. Some, such as Eric Crouch and Jason White, barely caused a ripple in the NFL.
All of this year’s top Heisman candidates are not "can’t miss" NFL prospects, though a couple of them figure to be chosen near the top of the draft should they make themselves eligible.
Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford is that rare player who may be college football's best player as well as the best NFL draft prospect. He is early leader in the competition to be the first player taken in the draft, assuming he decides to leave school after his sophomore season.
One NFL front office man I spoke with said Bradford reminds him of Tom Brady. They share more than the first four letters of their last names.
The front office man said Bradford throws like Brady in terms of his quick mind and quick release. Bradford also is extremely accurate and has good arm strength.
And after Bradford, there are no slam dunks among the Heisman candidates.
Scouts think Texas’ Colt McCoy is a fine player, but his arm strength is questionable. If he comes out early, he probably will not be a first or second round pick despite his intangibles and production.
Tebow is perhaps the most interesting prospect. As accomplished a college passer as he is, some NFL teams want to project him to tight end or safety. But the truth is Tebow likely will be drafted too high as a quarterback for him to end up being taken to play another position.
Because his accuracy and arm strength are questionable, and because he plays in an unusual offense, it is unlikely Tebow would be a first round pick. But because Tebow is so athletic, competitive, strong and instinctive and has been such a winner, he probably would be chosen in the second round if he declared himself eligible.
Oddly enough, the one player with Heisman-worthy statistics but isn't a finalist for the award is Texas Tech wide receiver Michael Crabtree. One scout compared Crabtree to Randy Moss because of his linear build, speed and jumping ability. Another compared him to Anquan Boldin because of his size, strength and excellent hands.
Crabtree, should he leave school early, clearly will be the highest ranked receiver prospect. That should ensure him of being chosen in the top ten of the draft.
Texas Tech’s Graham Harrell was another quarterback who had Heisman-like stats, but he has the “system quarterback” label to contend with. That means he looks like a third or fourth round pick. For all of Harrell’s production, NFL teams are concerned with his lack of size and so-so arm strength and athleticism.
There weren't any running backs among the Heisman finalists, but plenty earned Heisman buzz. None of them are sure-fire NFL stars.
Michigan State running back Javon Ringer will be a first round pick as long as he runs well, but some scouts question his speed. If he doesn’t run a 4.4 40 yard dash, some teams will be skeptical about him because he’s only 5-9, 200 pounds. A speed deficient Ringer would be difficult to project as more than a change of pace back.
Shonn Greene’s NFL stock, like Ringer’s, will be determined by how fast he runs. NFL teams question if the Iowa back has elite speed. “He looks like a 4.6 guy to me,” one general manager said. If that is the case, Greene probably won’t go higher than the second round. But if he runs well, Greene has the strength and size to be a first round pick.
Lack of height could hurt Ball State’s Nate Davis. The University lists him as 6-2, but NFL teams think he’s about 5-11. Davis has a great arm — strength, accuracy and touch. But in the NFL, it’s tough for a short quarterback pocket to make a living. If he isn’t six feet tall, Davis probably won’t go higher than the third round.
Q: Hey Dan, is Herm Edwards going to be around for another season in K.C.?
— Chuck, Junction City, Kan.
A: You can’t ever take anything for granted with a 2-11 team, but I would think so.
It would be hypocritical of Chiefs management to blame Edwards for their record. They knew where they were headed when they decided to purge veterans and rebuild with draft choices in the offseason. The Chiefs need to give Edwards time to develop the youngsters and turn it around.
Q: Do you think the NFL will suspend Plaxico for a season like they did to Pacman, or nearly the entire Bengals team? Will there be equal treatment?
— Ray Stefl, Denton, Texas
A: Without knowing all of the facts in the file the NFL has kept on Plaxico Burress, its difficult to say just how long he may be suspended for.
But I would say there is a very good chance the NFL will deal with him sternly. Since Roger Goodell has been the commissioner, players who cross the line repeatedly simply have not gotten away with it.
Q: So when will they ultimately decide on the Williams boys from Minn. about they're suspensions?
— Bruce Walters
A: No one knows, except that it won’t come before Friday. It’s completely in the hands of U.S. District Court judge Paul Magnuson.
It is obvious Kevin and Pat Williams and their attorneys think they have a strong case, otherwise challenging the ruling might not have been worth taking the risk of being suspended at an inopportune time—like right before the playoffs.
Q: In the Baltimore Ravens vs. Washington Redskins game, the DB [Ed] Reed from the Ravens intercepted the ball and slid and was not touched. Then [Antwan] Randel El took the ball from him and the play was ruled dead. Does the slide rule apply to other players besides the QB? Thanks
— Shane, Amissville, Va.
A: Section 4, Article 1 of the NFL rule book states, “A defender must pull up when a runner begins a feet-first slide.” It also says the play is over the instant the runner’s feet hit the ground.
The rulebook does not differentiate between quarterbacks and other players.
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