Current Roster Evaluation

[texaschief]

I've seen a lot of posts stating vast overreactions to the state of the current roster. I've seen posts that state we need 3 new O-linemen, that we need 3 new WRs, and that we need 2 new safeties to go along with 2 or 3 new LBs, 2 new DTs and a new CB, a new RB and a new QB.

SO, basically, we don't have a SINGLE good player on this team. I think otherwise. So, I'm going to run down the roster and try to identify who stays, who goes and who currently on the roster can either keep their starting roles or step into a starting role. After this exercise and ensuing discussion, we should have a BETTER idea as to what positions ACTUALLY have to be filled thru free agency and the draft.

Let's start with the offense.

WR- Dwayne Bowe, Mark Bradley, Will Franklin, and Kevin Robinson

Dwayne Bowe is a legitimate #1 WR in the making and shouldn't be looked at as someone who needs to be replaced. He could very well turn into a #2 WR if the Chiefs get Boldin or Crabtree or Houshmandzadeh, but the Chiefs don't HAVE to go out and find that #1 WR. They would probably better served by finding a less expensive #2 WR. Mark Bradley was the #2 last season and he impressed a lot of people but he fell off dramatically during the second half of the season and could serve as a good #3 in the future. Will Franklin and Kevin Robinson still need time to develop as most late round WRs do and it's probably too soon to tell what they're going to become.

RB- Larry Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Kolby Smith, Jackie Battle

Who knows what the hell is going on with LJ. He's still talented enough to be a great back for a couple more seasons and would probably be more valuable to the team if the Chiefs kept him instead of trying to trade him. All the reasons we want to get rid of him are all the reasons why teams won't give us fair value in a trade. He serves the team better staying as the featured back. Jamaal Charles probably solidified his position as the 3rd down back and #2 back. Kolby Smith will serve this team well as the #3 back if one of the first two were to get hurt. Jackie Battle is probably going to find himself stuck on special teams or the practice squad.

TE- Tony Gonzalez, Brad Cottam, Michael Merritt, Jed Collins

Tony is staying. Again, his value to the team is more as a player than a trade chip. Chances are, he at the very least puts up an average Tony Gonzalez year. Brad Cottam gets another year to learn from TG before becoming the future at that position. The Chiefs are set at TE for the foreseeable future. Michael Merritt probably cost himself a roster spot "over a little weed." So look for the Chiefs to grab another TE at somepoint during the off season. I know NOTHING about Jed Collins. Perhaps he can step into Merritt's role on the team.

LT- Branden Albert, Herb Taylor, Andrew Carnahan

Branden Albert played beyond expectations for a rookie who missed the entire preseason. He has the talent to be the franchise's LT for the next decade or so. However, his versatility and college background gives the Chiefs to option to move him inside or to the other OT position and draft the best available LT at #3. Herb Taylor did enough during his time on the line this season to warrant a look at a starting spot somewhere on the line. I know nothing about Carnahan.

LG- Brian Waters, Wade Smith

Brian Waters is a Pro Bowl OG and will be back for at least another season and possibly two. The Chiefs should find a LG for the future at some point this off season or next. Wade Smith is a good backup guard and should have a roster spot locked down.

C- Rudy Niswanger, Wade Smith

Rudy Niswanger is too big for the C position. This position IS one of the positions on the line that should be upgraded this season. I'd expect the Chiefs to draft or sign a new Center. Wade Smith would probably lose his job as backup to Niswanger.

RG- Adrian Jones, Wade Smith, Tavares Washington

Another position that will change next season. Although, the replacement might be found on the current roster. I'd actually expect Niswanger to take a step to his right and fill this position. His size, build, and talent could be perfect for the guard spot. Wade Smith is a good backup and Washington is probably a non-factor.

RT- Damion McIntosh, Herb Taylor, Barry Richardson

This could actually be one of the deeper positions on the line. McIntosh really came on toward the end of the season and COULD keep his spot. Herb Talyor is knocking on the door and could push for a starting position. Barry Richardson was drafted last season with the thought in mind that HE could be the future at that position. Then, depending on what they want to do with Albert, HE could be at this spot to start the season. I'm not sure the Chiefs will be looking to bring in another player to compete here.

QB- Tyler Thigpen, Quinn Gray, Brodie Croyle, Damon Huard

Your guess is as good as mine here. If Pioli is as good of a talent evaluator as everyone says he is, he'll see that the value we'd have to give up for Cassel isn't nearly worth the difference between he and Thigpen. I doubt the Chiefs trade a pair of firsts for Cassel. Gray was a good back up and should be retained. Croyle would be a cheap, young and talented 3rd QB if no other QB were brought in to compete. Damon Huard probably doesn't have a spot next season.

Defense

LE- Tamba Hali, Wallace Gilberry, Turk McBride

Tamba Hali plays good at LE. I doubt they'll look to replace him. I can't see Turk McBride staying on the team. He just hasn't done enough. I know nothing about Gilberry.

LT- Tank Tyler, Alfonso Boone

Tank is developing nicely and I think the Chiefs got a steal in the 3rd, drafting this guy. Alfonso Boone is a good rotational player and he'll have a roster spot.

RT- Glenn Dorsey Ron Edwards, Derek Lokey

Everyone is freaking out about Dorsey and worrying that he could be Ryan Sims part Deux. That's not the case. Dorsey is going to be a great DT. The problem with him and Tyler going forward is that the Chiefs may not keep the 4-3 and that might spell doom for both players. Edwards is a good rotational player and should have a roster spot next season. I don't know much about Lokey other than he was above average at Texas.

RE- Jason Babin, Andy Studebaker, Brian Johnston

Jason Babin really surprised some people last season and may have won a roster spot going into next season. Although, I seriously doubt he'll be looked at as THE starting LDE. I don't know enough about Studebaker and Johnston to be able to give an informed opinion.

LOLB- Demarrio Williams, Curtis Gatewood

Williams needs to be a backup and the Chiefs need to fill their linebacking positions through free agency.

MLB- Pat Thomas Weston Dacus

See above

ROLB- Derrick Johnson

Johnson is the only good LB the Chiefs have on their team. Since being drafted 15th overall, he has underachieved. This season is going to be a huge year for him as it pertains to his future as a Chief.

LCB- Brandon Carr, Pat Surtain, Maurice Leggett

Brandon Carr and Maurice Leggett did enough last season to be considered for a starting position next season. Look for Pat Surtain to be released.

RCB- Brandon Flowers

Starter.... for a WHILE

SS- Bernard Pollard, DaJuan Morgan

Personally, I like Pollard. His mistakes seem to be basic. If he can figure out how to wrap up, I think we've got a SS for a long time.

FS- Jarrad Page, DaJuan Morgan, Jon McGraw

I wouldn't be surprised to see Page come back. But, I also wouldn't be surprised to see Morgan become the new FS.


The way I see it, the Chiefs NEED only a few players from free agency and the draft, while any other players they bring in would be considered upgrades and would render the players they replace as depth... WHICH IS A GOOD THING!!

This is how I see the roster:

FA/D= Free Agent/Draft

Offense
QB- Thigpen
RB- Johnson
TE- Gonzalez
WR- Bowe, FA/D, Bradley
LT-Albert or D
LG-Waters
C-FA/D
RG-Niswanger/Albert
RT-Taylor/Albert/McIntosh

Defense
LDE-Tamba Hali/Jason Babin
LT-Tyler
RT-Dorsey
RDE-FA/D
ROLB-FA/D
MLB-FA/D
LOLB-Johnson
LCB-Carr/Leggett/FA/D
RCB-Flowers/FA/D
SS-Pollard
FS-Morgan

So, as far as in players the Chiefs NEED to bring in, they really just NEED five players to complete the starting squad (excluding depth). We need a RDE, ROLB, MLB, #2 WR and a Center. The rest of the team CAN be filled through players already on the team.

[windwalker]

This has to be one to the most informative and logical threads I have ever read here.

Straight talk, no thrash talking, no "I hate Herm" comments, no silly jokes.

All star thread!!!

[hometeam]

I was reading over this again and saw something..

under Qb's.. what about ingle martin? they did resign him already this offseason. Now, that might not mean anything, but maybe it says they already have the third QB and both huard and croyle are out~

[jmlamerson]

My opinion? We have the following starters on the Chiefs who are playing at a Pro Bowl (or pretty close) level:

Waters
Tony G.
Bowe
Colquitt

We have the following players who look very solid and NFL worthy at their positions:

Albert
Carr
Flowers
Pollard
Thigpen
Bradley

We have the following players who have looked NFL worthy but who underachieved at their positions this past season:

DJ
LJ
Hali

We have the following players who have question marks, and for whom it's too early to say:

Dorsey
Connor Barth
Kevin Robinson

We do not have NFL worthy starters at the following positions:

C
RG
RT (assuming Albert stays at LT)
2DT
RDE
MLB
ROLB
FS (Morgan isn't a FS, he's a natural SS)

We have decent depth at TE, RB, SS, and CB.

We are probably losing LJ this offseason, either by trade or by cut, so we'll need a big back to replace him. I'm assuming Tony G. stays and Waters doesn't retire.

Going into 2009, we should upgrade at the following positions:

2QB (late round rookie)
3WR
RB
C
RG
RT
2LG (Waters eventual replacement)
RDE
2DT
ROLB
MLB
FS
KR/PR

[Canada]

This has to be one to the most informative and logical threads I have ever read here.

Straight talk, no thrash talking, no "I hate Herm" comments, no silly jokes.

All star thread!!!

Thats why we keep Tex around!!

[debearzz]

Good job Tex.
For FA/D for OL, DE, and LB, there are a lot of scenarios the Chiefs can go with.
LB- D-Aaron Curry 1st or Clint Stintim 2nd
FA- Dansby, Vilma, Suggs
OL- D- Oher/Monroe/Smith 1st, Mack/Beatty/Britton/Robinson 2nd, Luigs/Caldwell/Johnson 3rd
FA- Jason Brown/Matt Birk
DE- D- Brian Orakpo 1st, Michael Johnson 2nd(recently his stock has dropped and more mocks have him going to the chiefs in the 2nd)
FA- Peppers/Suggs

As you can see, there are a lot of options. Most limited option is at OT if one isn't drafted in the 1st. Beatty or Britton most likely won't make it to the 2nd round

[Bike]

My main areas of concern:
3 OL, 1 DT, 3 LB.
Thats only 7 guys and we need help in other areas I know, but I would start here.

[texaschief]

Ok, so if there's a tentative agreement that the positions of need are RDE, ROLB, MLB, #2 WR and C (excluding JM's opinion of drafting and or signing an entirely new team ), then the next step needs to be identifying the top 5 PLAYERS in this year's draft. Going into the 2009 draft, who will be worth a top 3 pick? Which player is the SUREST bet to become a GREAT player?

Teams get in trouble when they try to draft for need early in the first. If I'm Pioli, I'm taking the best player on the board at #3 whether it's an OT, WR, RB or CB. I enjoy putting together mock drafts just as much as anyone, but the biggest reason mocks like Kiper's and McShay's hardly ever turn out is because a lot of their predictions are based on team needs. I'm trying to get away from that approach. It's easy to say, "we need a DE, or LG or LB, so let's take the best available." The problem with that is that players like Orakpo or Maualuga don't represent the best value at that #3 pick.

It just so happens that this year is a horrible year for the Chiefs to be picking in the top 3 because of all their positions of need, only one player could be worth that #3 pick and that's OLB Aaron Curry. Now, if there were players available at #3 that could fill positions of need, then yeah, that would be great for the team to be able to get a guy like that. But in order for the Chiefs to maximize their benefit of that #3 pick, they need to take the best player on the board.

So, like I said, the next step is going to be identifying the best 5 players in this year's draft. As of Feb. 8th, my list looks like this: (not draft order)

1. OT-Eugene Monroe
2. OLB-Aaron Curry
3. WR-Michael Crabtree
4. CB-Michael Jenkins
5. RB-Chris Wells

So, with this being our next step, who is your top 5 list?

[jmlamerson]

Ok, so if there's a tentative agreement that the positions of need are RDE, ROLB, MLB, #2 WR and C (excluding JM's opinion of drafting and or signing an entirely new team ), then the next step needs to be identifying the top 5 PLAYERS in this year's draft. Going into the 2009 draft, who will be worth a top 3 pick? Which player is the SUREST bet to become a GREAT player?

Teams get in trouble when they try to draft for need early in the first. If I'm Pioli, I'm taking the best player on the board at #3 whether it's an OT, WR, RB or CB. I enjoy putting together mock drafts just as much as anyone, but the biggest reason mocks like Kiper's and McShay's hardly ever turn out is because a lot of their predictions are based on team needs. I'm trying to get away from that approach. It's easy to say, "we need a DE, or LG or LB, so let's take the best available." The problem with that is that players like Orakpo or Maualuga don't represent the best value at that #3 pick.

It just so happens that this year is a horrible year for the Chiefs to be picking in the top 3 because of all their positions of need, only one player could be worth that #3 pick and that's OLB Aaron Curry. Now, if there were players available at #3 that could fill positions of need, then yeah, that would be great for the team to be able to get a guy like that. But in order for the Chiefs to maximize their benefit of that #3 pick, they need to take the best player on the board.

So, like I said, the next step is going to be identifying the best 5 players in this year's draft. As of Feb. 8th, my list looks like this: (not draft order)

1. OT-Eugene Monroe
2. OLB-Aaron Curry
3. WR-Michael Crabtree
4. CB-Michael Jenkins
5. RB-Chris Wells

So, with this being our next step, who is your top 5 list?

To be fair, I only thought we needed new starters at RB (because LJ is pretty much gone), C, RG, RT, RDE, 2DT, ROLB, MLB, and FS. Or 9 starting spots. My bet is that Pioli does upgrade these spots, either through FA or the draft.

The more I think about it, I think the Lions use their second 1st rounder to trade for Cassel or to pick Josh Freeman, meaning they pick Andre Smith at #1. Which means Eugene Monroe goes #2. So who do we pick at three, assuming no one is stupid enough to trade up?

God help me, Curry is the best value at that spot. I loathe the idea of picking a LB at 3 when we have an immediate need to upgrade our OL and DL, but Oher is dropping like a stone this draft, it's too high for Maualuga, and we'd be nuts to pick a WR given all of our other problems. There's no way Pioli picks Wells or Jenkins.

Of course, we're assuming Pioli doesn't grab Stafford.

[jap1]

My top 5 players:

1. OT - Monroe
2. OT - Andre Smith
3. WR - Crabtree
4. LB - Aaron Curry
5. NT - BJ Raji

I dont think Beanie Wells is top 5 material only because of his injury history. On a running back any lower body injury can take years off a career.

I dont really know much about Michael Jenkins.

At the Senior bowl, BJ Raji looked like a man among children, usually a good sign for defensive lineman.

What I think will happen:
1. Detroit - Smith
2. St Louis - Monroe
3. KC - Curry
4. Seattle - Crabtree

Detroit will go after Cassel like JM said, but he will take an offer from Minnesota because they have almost all the pieces to go to the show. They will go with an OT and hope Sanchez is there when they pick again in the 1st.

St Louis will take either an OT or Crabtree.

That leaves us ... I dont think the OT left will be worth it for us to take at #3. We have to assume we cannot trade down. Crabtree is too much of a luxury with our other needs. That really leaves Curry as the only pick worth it at #3.

I think a lot of what happens with the top two picks will depend on what happens in FA/trades, and those may seriously affect us.

[texaschief]

I think the top 3 OTs in this draft could be interchangeable. Between the two Smiths and Monroe, the top OT in the draft could change its name a couple times before late April arrives. So, even if the first two teams took an OT, that third OT could still represent the best value.