Current Roster Evaluation

[texaschief]

I've seen a lot of posts stating vast overreactions to the state of the current roster. I've seen posts that state we need 3 new O-linemen, that we need 3 new WRs, and that we need 2 new safeties to go along with 2 or 3 new LBs, 2 new DTs and a new CB, a new RB and a new QB.

SO, basically, we don't have a SINGLE good player on this team. I think otherwise. So, I'm going to run down the roster and try to identify who stays, who goes and who currently on the roster can either keep their starting roles or step into a starting role. After this exercise and ensuing discussion, we should have a BETTER idea as to what positions ACTUALLY have to be filled thru free agency and the draft.

Let's start with the offense.

WR- Dwayne Bowe, Mark Bradley, Will Franklin, and Kevin Robinson

Dwayne Bowe is a legitimate #1 WR in the making and shouldn't be looked at as someone who needs to be replaced. He could very well turn into a #2 WR if the Chiefs get Boldin or Crabtree or Houshmandzadeh, but the Chiefs don't HAVE to go out and find that #1 WR. They would probably better served by finding a less expensive #2 WR. Mark Bradley was the #2 last season and he impressed a lot of people but he fell off dramatically during the second half of the season and could serve as a good #3 in the future. Will Franklin and Kevin Robinson still need time to develop as most late round WRs do and it's probably too soon to tell what they're going to become.

RB- Larry Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Kolby Smith, Jackie Battle

Who knows what the hell is going on with LJ. He's still talented enough to be a great back for a couple more seasons and would probably be more valuable to the team if the Chiefs kept him instead of trying to trade him. All the reasons we want to get rid of him are all the reasons why teams won't give us fair value in a trade. He serves the team better staying as the featured back. Jamaal Charles probably solidified his position as the 3rd down back and #2 back. Kolby Smith will serve this team well as the #3 back if one of the first two were to get hurt. Jackie Battle is probably going to find himself stuck on special teams or the practice squad.

TE- Tony Gonzalez, Brad Cottam, Michael Merritt, Jed Collins

Tony is staying. Again, his value to the team is more as a player than a trade chip. Chances are, he at the very least puts up an average Tony Gonzalez year. Brad Cottam gets another year to learn from TG before becoming the future at that position. The Chiefs are set at TE for the foreseeable future. Michael Merritt probably cost himself a roster spot "over a little weed." So look for the Chiefs to grab another TE at somepoint during the off season. I know NOTHING about Jed Collins. Perhaps he can step into Merritt's role on the team.

LT- Branden Albert, Herb Taylor, Andrew Carnahan

Branden Albert played beyond expectations for a rookie who missed the entire preseason. He has the talent to be the franchise's LT for the next decade or so. However, his versatility and college background gives the Chiefs to option to move him inside or to the other OT position and draft the best available LT at #3. Herb Taylor did enough during his time on the line this season to warrant a look at a starting spot somewhere on the line. I know nothing about Carnahan.

LG- Brian Waters, Wade Smith

Brian Waters is a Pro Bowl OG and will be back for at least another season and possibly two. The Chiefs should find a LG for the future at some point this off season or next. Wade Smith is a good backup guard and should have a roster spot locked down.

C- Rudy Niswanger, Wade Smith

Rudy Niswanger is too big for the C position. This position IS one of the positions on the line that should be upgraded this season. I'd expect the Chiefs to draft or sign a new Center. Wade Smith would probably lose his job as backup to Niswanger.

RG- Adrian Jones, Wade Smith, Tavares Washington

Another position that will change next season. Although, the replacement might be found on the current roster. I'd actually expect Niswanger to take a step to his right and fill this position. His size, build, and talent could be perfect for the guard spot. Wade Smith is a good backup and Washington is probably a non-factor.

RT- Damion McIntosh, Herb Taylor, Barry Richardson

This could actually be one of the deeper positions on the line. McIntosh really came on toward the end of the season and COULD keep his spot. Herb Talyor is knocking on the door and could push for a starting position. Barry Richardson was drafted last season with the thought in mind that HE could be the future at that position. Then, depending on what they want to do with Albert, HE could be at this spot to start the season. I'm not sure the Chiefs will be looking to bring in another player to compete here.

QB- Tyler Thigpen, Quinn Gray, Brodie Croyle, Damon Huard

Your guess is as good as mine here. If Pioli is as good of a talent evaluator as everyone says he is, he'll see that the value we'd have to give up for Cassel isn't nearly worth the difference between he and Thigpen. I doubt the Chiefs trade a pair of firsts for Cassel. Gray was a good back up and should be retained. Croyle would be a cheap, young and talented 3rd QB if no other QB were brought in to compete. Damon Huard probably doesn't have a spot next season.

Defense

LE- Tamba Hali, Wallace Gilberry, Turk McBride

Tamba Hali plays good at LE. I doubt they'll look to replace him. I can't see Turk McBride staying on the team. He just hasn't done enough. I know nothing about Gilberry.

LT- Tank Tyler, Alfonso Boone

Tank is developing nicely and I think the Chiefs got a steal in the 3rd, drafting this guy. Alfonso Boone is a good rotational player and he'll have a roster spot.

RT- Glenn Dorsey Ron Edwards, Derek Lokey

Everyone is freaking out about Dorsey and worrying that he could be Ryan Sims part Deux. That's not the case. Dorsey is going to be a great DT. The problem with him and Tyler going forward is that the Chiefs may not keep the 4-3 and that might spell doom for both players. Edwards is a good rotational player and should have a roster spot next season. I don't know much about Lokey other than he was above average at Texas.

RE- Jason Babin, Andy Studebaker, Brian Johnston

Jason Babin really surprised some people last season and may have won a roster spot going into next season. Although, I seriously doubt he'll be looked at as THE starting LDE. I don't know enough about Studebaker and Johnston to be able to give an informed opinion.

LOLB- Demarrio Williams, Curtis Gatewood

Williams needs to be a backup and the Chiefs need to fill their linebacking positions through free agency.

MLB- Pat Thomas Weston Dacus

See above

ROLB- Derrick Johnson

Johnson is the only good LB the Chiefs have on their team. Since being drafted 15th overall, he has underachieved. This season is going to be a huge year for him as it pertains to his future as a Chief.

LCB- Brandon Carr, Pat Surtain, Maurice Leggett

Brandon Carr and Maurice Leggett did enough last season to be considered for a starting position next season. Look for Pat Surtain to be released.

RCB- Brandon Flowers

Starter.... for a WHILE

SS- Bernard Pollard, DaJuan Morgan

Personally, I like Pollard. His mistakes seem to be basic. If he can figure out how to wrap up, I think we've got a SS for a long time.

FS- Jarrad Page, DaJuan Morgan, Jon McGraw

I wouldn't be surprised to see Page come back. But, I also wouldn't be surprised to see Morgan become the new FS.


The way I see it, the Chiefs NEED only a few players from free agency and the draft, while any other players they bring in would be considered upgrades and would render the players they replace as depth... WHICH IS A GOOD THING!!

This is how I see the roster:

FA/D= Free Agent/Draft

Offense
QB- Thigpen
RB- Johnson
TE- Gonzalez
WR- Bowe, FA/D, Bradley
LT-Albert or D
LG-Waters
C-FA/D
RG-Niswanger/Albert
RT-Taylor/Albert/McIntosh

Defense
LDE-Tamba Hali/Jason Babin
LT-Tyler
RT-Dorsey
RDE-FA/D
ROLB-FA/D
MLB-FA/D
LOLB-Johnson
LCB-Carr/Leggett/FA/D
RCB-Flowers/FA/D
SS-Pollard
FS-Morgan

So, as far as in players the Chiefs NEED to bring in, they really just NEED five players to complete the starting squad (excluding depth). We need a RDE, ROLB, MLB, #2 WR and a Center. The rest of the team CAN be filled through players already on the team.

[ChiefsFanFromNY]

I'm hopeful that the Chiefs don't use the #3 pick on a QB. I think that if the Chiefs were to use the #3 pick on a QB, that he would most likely not be starting. I can't imagine that we would throw a new QB to the wolves on day 1 when we have Thigpen available. So that means if you draft a QB at #3, your 1st rd pick will be riding the bench next year. I just think that is a luxury this team can't afford right now. They need someone who can start in week 1 with that pick. They need starters. There are plenty of free agent options to provide depth at QB. Names like Leftwich and Simms are serviceable backups.

No QB at #3!

Why can't they afford sitting a QB? This team is not going to the playoffs next year, especially with the killer schedule we have. I think this is the perfect year to take a QB and let him sit and learn. Thigpen hasn't proved he can run a pro offense yet and he has many other unanswered questions. Next year's class of QB's is also bad, so it's likely we won't be able to draft one for another 2 years. Sanchez and Stafford are both very good prospects that I would have no problem with at #3. When have the Chiefs ever had a franchise QB? We need one and both guys have a chance to be that guy.

[jmlamerson]

Why can't they afford sitting a QB? This team is not going to the playoffs next year, especially with the killer schedule we have. I think this is the perfect year to take a QB and let him sit and learn. Thigpen hasn't proved he can run a pro offense yet and he has many other unanswered questions. Next year's class of QB's is also bad, so it's likely we won't be able to draft one for another 2 years. Sanchez and Stafford are both very good prospects that I would have no problem with at #3. When have the Chiefs ever had a franchise QB? We need one and both guys have a chance to be that guy.

If we're looking to draft a QB for the future, why not just wait until 2010 when there are great QBs in the draft? How can you call a class with Bradford, Tebow, and McCoy a bad class?!?!

My problem with Stafford and Sanchez is that they're a couple of underclassmen that will need plenty of TLC before they're adequate NFL QBs. They aren't good enough to draft at the 3 spot. This would be a reach of Alex Smith/David Carr/Akili Smith proportions for either guy.

[ChiefsFanFromNY]

If we're looking to draft a QB for the future, why not just wait until 2010 when there are great QBs in the draft? How can you call a class with Bradford, Tebow, and McCoy a bad class?!?!

My problem with Stafford and Sanchez is that they're a couple of underclassmen that will need plenty of TLC before they're adequate NFL QBs. They aren't good enough to draft at the 3 spot. This would be a reach of Alex Smith/David Carr/Akili Smith proportions for either guy.

Tebow isn't an NFL QB, and the other two come from spread offenses. Not many QB's come to the pros and succeed while running the spread in college. I like Bradford as a prospect, but not McCoy. And Bradford will likely be gone very early and we won't be in position to select him. I think this is our best chance to get a franchise QB and the timing is good.

I agree with your concern about the experience of both QB's. It worries me as well especially with Sanchez, but we need a QB. The spread and pistol is not happening with Haley here and Tyler can't run a pro-style offense at the moment. Why don't you think either is worth the #3 pick? They both impress the hell out of me.

[texaschief]

I think it's impossible to accurately predict what this team does in the draft until after we see what we can get done during free agency.


I think the Chiefs can get a very good Center in the 2nd rd.

I don't think it's impossible to accurately predict what the team will do in the draft if you go thru the same process the organization will. So, identifying who your primary target will be at #3 and figuring out the likely hood of that player still being available at that spot, you can reasonably figure out who the team will target in free agency.

The problem we have right now in this process is that we don't know for sure that they're going to stick with the 4-3. My guess is that they will stay with the 4-3 for a while because all the young talent that was brought in over the last few years was geared for the 4-3 and you can't just throw that good, young talent away because you want to implement a different system.

So, my evaluation and future estimations will be based on an assumption that we're keeping the 4-3 until there is definitive proof that they're going to change.

The second round could be ripe for a Center prospect. But again, I'm not excited about spending any picks in the first three rounds on any player who ISN'T the best player available. If Unger or Mack are there and they represent the best value, then yeah, draft him.

[jmlamerson]

Tebow isn't an NFL QB, and the other two come from spread offenses. Not many QB's come to the pros and succeed while running the spread in college. I like Bradford as a prospect, but not McCoy. And Bradford will likely be gone very early and we won't be in position to select him. I think this is our best chance to get a franchise QB and the timing is good.

I agree with your concern about the experience of both QB's. It worries me as well especially with Sanchez, but we need a QB. The spread and pistol is not happening with Haley here and Tyler can't run a pro-style offense at the moment. Why don't you think either is worth the #3 pick? They both impress the hell out of me.

Neither's work the #3 pick because they'll need to sit on the bench a couple years. I can't think of a single QB who successfully came out his junior year. Michael Vick? I can think of a lot of failures.

I don't want to tie up $8M a year in either Sanchez or Stafford to sit on the bench, especially since I don't think either is a good prospect. I don't like Stafford's erratic passing (yeah, I know he's gotten better every year, but still), and Sanchez only came out in 2009 because he knows he's a 2nd rounder (at best) in 2010.

We have no idea whether Tyler can run a pro offense. He's never had an OL with which to find out.

[texaschief]

No QB in this draft represents the best value at the #3 spot. If you want a QB, you either need to trade down from #3 or up from #35. Neither Stafford nor Sanchez are as highly thought of as even Matt Ryan, David Carr, Alex Smith, Matt Leinart or Brady Quinn were, coming off their final college seasons. There is a lot of concern over both these QBs right now and some "experts" think they both should've returned for their senior seasons.

I'm not interested in a QB who isn't a "can't miss" prospect at #3. The bust % for QBs is so high, this team just can't afford that type of hit at this juncture. That's not to say the Chiefs shouldn't spend a first round pick on a QB at some point soon... it just shouldn't be the #3 pick on THIS group of QBs. If those two guys drop like Quinn did and get in the 20s, then the Chiefs might have to consider trading up from 35.

Personally, I have my eye on Jevon Snead from Ole Miss. If he comes out next year... that's the guy I want.

[Bike]

I think Monroe is on the board at #3 and will be reunited with his old teammate Albert and they will bookend our line for years to come.

[texaschief]

Ok. So, assuming we have out pick of Monroe or Curry, who do we take?

[Bike]

Ok. So, assuming we have out pick of Monroe or Curry, who do we take?

I would take Monroe. He would have immediate impact. I think we need experience on defense and could get a DE and LB in FA.

[jmlamerson]

I would take Monroe. He would have immediate impact. I think we need experience on defense and could get a DE and LB in FA.

I agree - Monroe in a heartbeat. I like Curry, but we aren't getting value for the pick at #3 picking a LB.

I'd probably put Raji above Curry as well at #3.

Tell the truth, as long as we don't go Crabtree, Orakpo, or QB, I'll probably be happy with whatever we do at the #3 spot.