Current Roster Evaluation

[texaschief]

I've seen a lot of posts stating vast overreactions to the state of the current roster. I've seen posts that state we need 3 new O-linemen, that we need 3 new WRs, and that we need 2 new safeties to go along with 2 or 3 new LBs, 2 new DTs and a new CB, a new RB and a new QB.

SO, basically, we don't have a SINGLE good player on this team. I think otherwise. So, I'm going to run down the roster and try to identify who stays, who goes and who currently on the roster can either keep their starting roles or step into a starting role. After this exercise and ensuing discussion, we should have a BETTER idea as to what positions ACTUALLY have to be filled thru free agency and the draft.

Let's start with the offense.

WR- Dwayne Bowe, Mark Bradley, Will Franklin, and Kevin Robinson

Dwayne Bowe is a legitimate #1 WR in the making and shouldn't be looked at as someone who needs to be replaced. He could very well turn into a #2 WR if the Chiefs get Boldin or Crabtree or Houshmandzadeh, but the Chiefs don't HAVE to go out and find that #1 WR. They would probably better served by finding a less expensive #2 WR. Mark Bradley was the #2 last season and he impressed a lot of people but he fell off dramatically during the second half of the season and could serve as a good #3 in the future. Will Franklin and Kevin Robinson still need time to develop as most late round WRs do and it's probably too soon to tell what they're going to become.

RB- Larry Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Kolby Smith, Jackie Battle

Who knows what the hell is going on with LJ. He's still talented enough to be a great back for a couple more seasons and would probably be more valuable to the team if the Chiefs kept him instead of trying to trade him. All the reasons we want to get rid of him are all the reasons why teams won't give us fair value in a trade. He serves the team better staying as the featured back. Jamaal Charles probably solidified his position as the 3rd down back and #2 back. Kolby Smith will serve this team well as the #3 back if one of the first two were to get hurt. Jackie Battle is probably going to find himself stuck on special teams or the practice squad.

TE- Tony Gonzalez, Brad Cottam, Michael Merritt, Jed Collins

Tony is staying. Again, his value to the team is more as a player than a trade chip. Chances are, he at the very least puts up an average Tony Gonzalez year. Brad Cottam gets another year to learn from TG before becoming the future at that position. The Chiefs are set at TE for the foreseeable future. Michael Merritt probably cost himself a roster spot "over a little weed." So look for the Chiefs to grab another TE at somepoint during the off season. I know NOTHING about Jed Collins. Perhaps he can step into Merritt's role on the team.

LT- Branden Albert, Herb Taylor, Andrew Carnahan

Branden Albert played beyond expectations for a rookie who missed the entire preseason. He has the talent to be the franchise's LT for the next decade or so. However, his versatility and college background gives the Chiefs to option to move him inside or to the other OT position and draft the best available LT at #3. Herb Taylor did enough during his time on the line this season to warrant a look at a starting spot somewhere on the line. I know nothing about Carnahan.

LG- Brian Waters, Wade Smith

Brian Waters is a Pro Bowl OG and will be back for at least another season and possibly two. The Chiefs should find a LG for the future at some point this off season or next. Wade Smith is a good backup guard and should have a roster spot locked down.

C- Rudy Niswanger, Wade Smith

Rudy Niswanger is too big for the C position. This position IS one of the positions on the line that should be upgraded this season. I'd expect the Chiefs to draft or sign a new Center. Wade Smith would probably lose his job as backup to Niswanger.

RG- Adrian Jones, Wade Smith, Tavares Washington

Another position that will change next season. Although, the replacement might be found on the current roster. I'd actually expect Niswanger to take a step to his right and fill this position. His size, build, and talent could be perfect for the guard spot. Wade Smith is a good backup and Washington is probably a non-factor.

RT- Damion McIntosh, Herb Taylor, Barry Richardson

This could actually be one of the deeper positions on the line. McIntosh really came on toward the end of the season and COULD keep his spot. Herb Talyor is knocking on the door and could push for a starting position. Barry Richardson was drafted last season with the thought in mind that HE could be the future at that position. Then, depending on what they want to do with Albert, HE could be at this spot to start the season. I'm not sure the Chiefs will be looking to bring in another player to compete here.

QB- Tyler Thigpen, Quinn Gray, Brodie Croyle, Damon Huard

Your guess is as good as mine here. If Pioli is as good of a talent evaluator as everyone says he is, he'll see that the value we'd have to give up for Cassel isn't nearly worth the difference between he and Thigpen. I doubt the Chiefs trade a pair of firsts for Cassel. Gray was a good back up and should be retained. Croyle would be a cheap, young and talented 3rd QB if no other QB were brought in to compete. Damon Huard probably doesn't have a spot next season.

Defense

LE- Tamba Hali, Wallace Gilberry, Turk McBride

Tamba Hali plays good at LE. I doubt they'll look to replace him. I can't see Turk McBride staying on the team. He just hasn't done enough. I know nothing about Gilberry.

LT- Tank Tyler, Alfonso Boone

Tank is developing nicely and I think the Chiefs got a steal in the 3rd, drafting this guy. Alfonso Boone is a good rotational player and he'll have a roster spot.

RT- Glenn Dorsey Ron Edwards, Derek Lokey

Everyone is freaking out about Dorsey and worrying that he could be Ryan Sims part Deux. That's not the case. Dorsey is going to be a great DT. The problem with him and Tyler going forward is that the Chiefs may not keep the 4-3 and that might spell doom for both players. Edwards is a good rotational player and should have a roster spot next season. I don't know much about Lokey other than he was above average at Texas.

RE- Jason Babin, Andy Studebaker, Brian Johnston

Jason Babin really surprised some people last season and may have won a roster spot going into next season. Although, I seriously doubt he'll be looked at as THE starting LDE. I don't know enough about Studebaker and Johnston to be able to give an informed opinion.

LOLB- Demarrio Williams, Curtis Gatewood

Williams needs to be a backup and the Chiefs need to fill their linebacking positions through free agency.

MLB- Pat Thomas Weston Dacus

See above

ROLB- Derrick Johnson

Johnson is the only good LB the Chiefs have on their team. Since being drafted 15th overall, he has underachieved. This season is going to be a huge year for him as it pertains to his future as a Chief.

LCB- Brandon Carr, Pat Surtain, Maurice Leggett

Brandon Carr and Maurice Leggett did enough last season to be considered for a starting position next season. Look for Pat Surtain to be released.

RCB- Brandon Flowers

Starter.... for a WHILE

SS- Bernard Pollard, DaJuan Morgan

Personally, I like Pollard. His mistakes seem to be basic. If he can figure out how to wrap up, I think we've got a SS for a long time.

FS- Jarrad Page, DaJuan Morgan, Jon McGraw

I wouldn't be surprised to see Page come back. But, I also wouldn't be surprised to see Morgan become the new FS.


The way I see it, the Chiefs NEED only a few players from free agency and the draft, while any other players they bring in would be considered upgrades and would render the players they replace as depth... WHICH IS A GOOD THING!!

This is how I see the roster:

FA/D= Free Agent/Draft

Offense
QB- Thigpen
RB- Johnson
TE- Gonzalez
WR- Bowe, FA/D, Bradley
LT-Albert or D
LG-Waters
C-FA/D
RG-Niswanger/Albert
RT-Taylor/Albert/McIntosh

Defense
LDE-Tamba Hali/Jason Babin
LT-Tyler
RT-Dorsey
RDE-FA/D
ROLB-FA/D
MLB-FA/D
LOLB-Johnson
LCB-Carr/Leggett/FA/D
RCB-Flowers/FA/D
SS-Pollard
FS-Morgan

So, as far as in players the Chiefs NEED to bring in, they really just NEED five players to complete the starting squad (excluding depth). We need a RDE, ROLB, MLB, #2 WR and a Center. The rest of the team CAN be filled through players already on the team.

[texaschief]

I was addressing the statement about if we took a OT with our third pick it would downgrade our 15th pick last year, don't let drowngrading a pick from last year determine a pick this year is all I was talking about.

I'd be more concerned with taking a player who ISN'T the best player on the board. While it would definitely suck to have to take another LT, I wouldn't be horribly against it considering the current draft class. You're right. That one particular reason shouldn't have too much bearing on whether or not you should take a LT #3. But, if you're staring at Curry or Jenkins and a LT who could be considered equal, that exact reason SHOULD have bearing on your decision. If you have a LT who could conceivably lock down that position for the next decade, you probably want to upgrade another position and fill the RT and RG spots with guys currently on the team or with a draft pick in a later round.

[Coach]

Not that I don't think drafting a LT could represent the best value at #3, but taking a LT at #3 is going to kill the value we got from selecting Albert #15. You don't generally see franchise LTs taken #15. I think we got a steal by getting Albert at the 15th spot. Suddenly, by taking a LT #3 this season, you're basically drafting a guard or RT with the 15th spot last season. RTs and Guards don't get taken that high in the draft. This is basically my ONLY problem with taking a LT at the #3 spot.

This is exactly how I feel about taking a LT at #3. I'm not totally against it though, because we need some OL depth in a big way. If Albert got hurt, this team would struggle on the OL. By taking a LT, we get depth at LT and can move Albert to RT or RG.

If they do decide to take a LT with the #3 pick, could they justify taking a center like Unger or Mack with the 2nd rd'er?

By doing so, they will have neglected the pass rush problems they have unless they spend some money in free agency.

[Coach]

What do you guys think about Pat White? He could be a decent backup plan to Thigpen and could provide some depth at WR and QB. He could be sitting there when we pick in the 4th round.

He has INCREDIBLE acceleration. Could be a great slot WR.

6'1" 192 lbs.
40-time : 4.50secs
Pat White | West Virginia Scouting Report - 2009 NFL Draft Prospect

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0YPDFmcp5Y"]YouTube - Pat White Highlights[/ame]

[Vandelay]

[quote=Coach;117233]What do you guys think about Pat White? He could be a decent backup plan to Thigpen and could provide some depth at WR and QB. He could be sitting there when we pick in the 4th round.]



I like it, he could be the #3 reciever, as well as the #3 QB, that would save us a roster spot. He would also be very dangerous in the wildcat formation.

[Lazeye]

I am sold on the guy, I would pick him up in the third round IMO. With a QB like him, you would not have to protect him on every down, when the pressure is on lure the D and then let him TAKEOFF and make plays like he can do.

[texaschief]

This is exactly how I feel about taking a LT at #3. I'm not totally against it though, because we need some OL depth in a big way. If Albert got hurt, this team would struggle on the OL. By taking a LT, we get depth at LT and can move Albert to RT or RG.

If they do decide to take a LT with the #3 pick, could they justify taking a center like Unger or Mack with the 2nd rd'er?

By doing so, they will have neglected the pass rush problems they have unless they spend some money in free agency.

Like I said earlier, if we can identify our primary target in the draft, you can cross that position off your list as you head into free agency.

It seems like the consensus on this board is that the Chiefs should take a LT at #3. If that's the case, you can stop worrying about bringing in a Jordan Gross or Max Starks or any other OT who might be available in free agency.

Now, we need to take a look at how much cap space we're going to have after the Chiefs release a few players like Pat Surtain. Then, instead of just throwing a bunch of free agent names out in the wind and hoping they hit the market, we should identify players who will likely be available in free agency who can fill the positions of NEED that we identified earlier in the thread (RDE, ROLB, MLB, #2 WR and C) with all other upgrades coming from players already within the organization.

We need to identify good, young players in free agency that could fill a few of these positions.

RDE- Terrell Suggs, Julius Peppers, Chris Canty, and Antonio Smith

Terrell Suggs was the first Baltimore player to come out and talk about a "hometown discount" in order to keep the team together. Baltimore has four or five defensive free agents that it would love to hold on to. It's probably not going to happen. The team has come out and said it's going to outbid all other suiters for Lewis. Suggs will probably stay with Baltimore.

Julius Peppers has publicly stated that he wants out of Carolina. The team feels like it can negotiate a contract with Gross, which would free up the franchise tag for Peppers. The best thing the Chiefs could hope for is a poor negotiation with Gross which would require the Panthers to slap the franchise tag on him.

Chris Canty is young and has been a solid DE for Dallas. There are plenty of problems in Dallas and Canty could be available. Antonio Smith and Bertrand Berry will become available from Arizona. Berry is considered a top tier pass rusher... but only when he's healthy but he's up there in years and older that Peppers. Smith seems to be developing into a good DE. I'd rate him ahead of Tamba Hali at this point.

ROLB- Karlos Dansby, Bart Scott, Leroy Hill, Freddy Keiaho, Michael Boley

Depending on what happens in Arizona, Dansby could become available and he would HAVE to be the #1 target at this position for the Chiefs. He has, however stated publicly that he'd like to go play in New York because of the big market. Bart Scott HAS TO be target #1a for the Chiefs. The Ravens have a bunch of HUGE free agents on their team. If they plan to keep Jason Brown, Sam Koch, Dawan Landry, Ray Lewis, Matt Stover, Terrell Suggs, etc., they're going to have to give up some of those players. With their history of developing great LBs, I've gotta think they're going to let one of their top LBs go for the betterment of the team.

Leroy Hill is developing into a good to great LB in Seattle and he should be at the top of this list. Freddy Keiaho is a good young LB from Indy and would be another great acquisition. Michael Boley in Buffalo is ANOTHER good OLB that should be considered.

The draft may not line up the way the Chiefs would have wanted, but if there were ever a year to acquire a good, young OLB in free agency, this is the year to get one.

MLB-Jonathan Vilma, Channing Crowder, and Andrea Davis.

The Chiefs need to take a HARD RUN at Jonathan Vilma. During his career, he has played a full season 4 out of 5 years. In those years, he's averaging 130 tkls. THAT'S UNBELIEVABLE!!! Channing Crowder and Andrea Davis would upgrade the MLB positions, but it wouldn't be anything like having Vilma in there. I've gotta think if they can't get Vilma, they would have to probably fill this position thru trade or free agency.

#2 WR- T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Antonio Bryant, Reggie Williams, Amani Toomer, Devery Henderson, Nate Washington, Michael Clayton.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh is good enough to move Bowe off the #1 WR spot, but he's going to cost a lot and I'm not sure his talent is NEEDED on this team. I would expect the Chiefs to go out and find another true #2 WR to fill the void. Matching Devery Henderson up with his former teammate in Bowe wouldn't be awful.

Center- Jason Brown

Brown is probably the only Center worth signing in free agency. He's been great since drafted four years ago by Baltimore. I doubt Baltimore lets him go, so the Chiefs are probably going to have to fill this hole in the draft or by trade.

Upgrade FAs- OG Jari Evans, S Jermaine Phillips, S Oshiomogho Atogwe, S Sean Jones, CB Nnamdi Asomugha, CB Dunta Robinson, K Rob Bironas, K Shayne Graham, K Matt Stover

As I've already said, I think the Chiefs will have plenty of in-house options to pick from to fill the guard position this season. But, bringing in a guy like Jari Evans would complete the O-line for years to come. If we take a LT #3, move Albert to the RT, put Jari at RG, draft a Center and keep Waters at LG, that line would rank among the best for the next decade even having to fill the LG position in the next couple years.

There's no guarantee that Jarrod Page will be resigned and the S position COULD be a position of need. Phillips, Oshiomogho and Jones represent upgrades over Page and might warrant some real consideration.

I've said that Brandon Flowers is a good CB. But, I just don't think he's the shut down CB all teams look for. There are already rumors of the Raiders franchising Aso, so bringing him here is probably just a pipe dream. But having Aso and Flowers at the CB spots for the next decade would be devastating for the rest of this pass happy division. Put some pressure from the DE spots and our defense could jump to the top 10 next season.

The Kicker position isn't horrible, but Barth isn't a Stover, Graham or Bironas.

The Chiefs are expected to have $33 million in cap space which will be 4th most in the league behind Tampa $42, Arizona $41 and Denver $34. Trust me. This is a correct ESTIMATE.

My conceivable free agent additions:

DE- Julius Peppers 4 yr $49 million $12 guaranteed
OLB- Karlos Dansby or Bart Scott 5 yr $45 million $12 guaranteed
MLB- Jonathan Vilma 4 yr $36 million $10 million guaranteed
WR- Devery Henderson 7 yr $25 million $8 million guaranteed
S- Oshiomogho Atogwe 6 yr $30 million $13 million guaranteed

These signings would take up ROUGHLY about half or a little more of the cap space we have available. I'd be willing to bet that after these signings, we'd probably still have more than $12 million available.

Going into the draft, our roster would look like this:

CB-Flowers, Carr/Leggett
FS- Oshiomogho Atogwe
SS-Bernard Pollard
ROLB-Karlos Dansby or Bart Scott
MLB-Jonathan Vilma
LOLB-Derrick Johnson
DT-Tank Tyler, Glenn Dorsey
DE-Julius Peppers, Tamba Hali

QB-Tyler Thigpen
RB-LJ
WR-Dwayne Bowe, Devery Henderson, Mark Bradley
TE-Gonzo, Brad Cottam
LT-Branden Albert
LG-Brian Waters
C- OPEN
RG- Rudy Niswanger
LT-Herb Taylor

Then, going into the draft, you can eliminate Curry. So, it then comes down to taking that LT or Jenkins at CB. I think if the Chiefs fill that many holes in free agency, they might draft for need in round one and two which might make them take the best available C in the 2nd.

You could see an O-line like this after the draft:
Monroe
Waters
Mack/Unger/Wood
Niswanger/McIntosh
Albert

Things could get even more interesting if the Chiefs go after Jari Evans as well. Throw Evans in that RG spot... whew. With an O-line like that, after they jelled and got used to each other, it wouldn't matter WHO you had throwing the ball.

[texaschief]

Pat White is intriguing, but I just can't see him as a franchise QB. If I'm going to take an athlete, why not grab Percy Harvin?

[texaschief]

My Vilma contract is wrong and it won't let me edit.

That contract will probably be somewhere around 4 yr $42 million with at least $14 guaranteed.

[chief31]

Not that I don't think drafting a LT could represent the best value at #3, but taking a LT at #3 is going to kill the value we got from selecting Albert #15. You don't generally see franchise LTs taken #15. I think we got a steal by getting Albert at the 15th spot. Suddenly, by taking a LT #3 this season, you're basically drafting a guard or RT with the 15th spot last season. RTs and Guards don't get taken that high in the draft. This is basically my ONLY problem with taking a LT at the #3 spot. But knowing Monroe already replaced Albert once at LT, makes me feel a lot better about Monroe as a LT in particular.

Do y'all feel comfortable taking another LT at #3 who isn't named Monroe?

Seein' as how I am not impressed by Albert... Yes.

Not that I think he was bad. Just that he is not my idea of a starting NFL LOT.

Like I said earlier, if we can identify our primary target in the draft, you can cross that position off your list as you head into free agency.

It seems like the consensus on this board is that the Chiefs should take a LT at #3. If that's the case, you can stop worrying about bringing in a Jordan Gross or Max Starks or any other OT who might be available in free agency.


You could see an O-line like this after the draft:
Monroe
Waters
Mack/Unger/Wood
Niswanger/McIntosh
Albert

Things could get even more interesting if the Chiefs go after Jari Evans as well. Throw Evans in that RG spot... whew. With an O-line like that, after they jelled and got used to each other, it wouldn't matter WHO you had throwing the ball.

That is still a very nasty hole you have at RG.

I've seen some good things said about Tosh, but I have not seen good play from him. Sure, a good play here and there. But any Schmo can do that.

O-line play has to be a regular thing. You have to be able to minnimize poor plays, and play well each game, and each down.

If you have the best single play as a ROT fifteen times in a season. You could very well still be the worst ROT in the NFL.

Tosh is a valuable backup. That's all. If you are starting him. Then you have problems.

If it hadn't been for the "run and gun" Spread offense, that we employed, then this offensive line might have over-shadowed how poorly our D-line played.

The Tosh/Niswanger duo may yield a decent starter at RG. But it's a long shot.

And I don't think that we have the means to cover three starting O-line spots this off-season, if we want to do anything to the defense.

However, if we can add Gross, a first round LOT and some 4th-5th round insurance at C, then I think our entire offense is improved to the point where they might be able to punch it on 3rd and two or three. Or even protect a late lead.

Not to mention the improved pass protection.

I have absolutely no problem with putting Albert at RG. None. I don't care if he was drafted #1 last year. He is a top-notch OG prospect, and a decent LOT prospect. (IMO.)

I'd be thrilled to have top-notch guys at RG and LT. I'd be ashamed to have decent guys at RG and LT.

As for the defense, I think that a lack of Jared Allen was our biggest problem. I think that Dorsey looks a whole lot better, if Jared Allen is still at RDE.

I think Hali continues to impress, if Jared is still at RDE.

I think that the entire LB corp looks good (Not just better) if Jared Allen is at RDE.

I think that Jared Page still looks like a moron. But some things can't be helped.

Bottom line... Peppers and Gross in FA. And OT in the first round of the draft. And, if I have my way, a C in the second round.

Beyond that, just try to find some gems for any position that we can.

[texaschief]

There's no way in hell the Panthers lose Peppers AND Gross.

The Chiefs have the means to fill any and all holes this off season. RDE is definitely a priority. The loss of Allen was big, but it was seemingly inevitable considering how much he wanted out and the fact that he had turned down a contract extension. I think the Chiefs got good value for him and to expect to replace him in one season was an unrealistic expectation.