Current Roster Evaluation

[texaschief]

I've seen a lot of posts stating vast overreactions to the state of the current roster. I've seen posts that state we need 3 new O-linemen, that we need 3 new WRs, and that we need 2 new safeties to go along with 2 or 3 new LBs, 2 new DTs and a new CB, a new RB and a new QB.

SO, basically, we don't have a SINGLE good player on this team. I think otherwise. So, I'm going to run down the roster and try to identify who stays, who goes and who currently on the roster can either keep their starting roles or step into a starting role. After this exercise and ensuing discussion, we should have a BETTER idea as to what positions ACTUALLY have to be filled thru free agency and the draft.

Let's start with the offense.

WR- Dwayne Bowe, Mark Bradley, Will Franklin, and Kevin Robinson

Dwayne Bowe is a legitimate #1 WR in the making and shouldn't be looked at as someone who needs to be replaced. He could very well turn into a #2 WR if the Chiefs get Boldin or Crabtree or Houshmandzadeh, but the Chiefs don't HAVE to go out and find that #1 WR. They would probably better served by finding a less expensive #2 WR. Mark Bradley was the #2 last season and he impressed a lot of people but he fell off dramatically during the second half of the season and could serve as a good #3 in the future. Will Franklin and Kevin Robinson still need time to develop as most late round WRs do and it's probably too soon to tell what they're going to become.

RB- Larry Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Kolby Smith, Jackie Battle

Who knows what the hell is going on with LJ. He's still talented enough to be a great back for a couple more seasons and would probably be more valuable to the team if the Chiefs kept him instead of trying to trade him. All the reasons we want to get rid of him are all the reasons why teams won't give us fair value in a trade. He serves the team better staying as the featured back. Jamaal Charles probably solidified his position as the 3rd down back and #2 back. Kolby Smith will serve this team well as the #3 back if one of the first two were to get hurt. Jackie Battle is probably going to find himself stuck on special teams or the practice squad.

TE- Tony Gonzalez, Brad Cottam, Michael Merritt, Jed Collins

Tony is staying. Again, his value to the team is more as a player than a trade chip. Chances are, he at the very least puts up an average Tony Gonzalez year. Brad Cottam gets another year to learn from TG before becoming the future at that position. The Chiefs are set at TE for the foreseeable future. Michael Merritt probably cost himself a roster spot "over a little weed." So look for the Chiefs to grab another TE at somepoint during the off season. I know NOTHING about Jed Collins. Perhaps he can step into Merritt's role on the team.

LT- Branden Albert, Herb Taylor, Andrew Carnahan

Branden Albert played beyond expectations for a rookie who missed the entire preseason. He has the talent to be the franchise's LT for the next decade or so. However, his versatility and college background gives the Chiefs to option to move him inside or to the other OT position and draft the best available LT at #3. Herb Taylor did enough during his time on the line this season to warrant a look at a starting spot somewhere on the line. I know nothing about Carnahan.

LG- Brian Waters, Wade Smith

Brian Waters is a Pro Bowl OG and will be back for at least another season and possibly two. The Chiefs should find a LG for the future at some point this off season or next. Wade Smith is a good backup guard and should have a roster spot locked down.

C- Rudy Niswanger, Wade Smith

Rudy Niswanger is too big for the C position. This position IS one of the positions on the line that should be upgraded this season. I'd expect the Chiefs to draft or sign a new Center. Wade Smith would probably lose his job as backup to Niswanger.

RG- Adrian Jones, Wade Smith, Tavares Washington

Another position that will change next season. Although, the replacement might be found on the current roster. I'd actually expect Niswanger to take a step to his right and fill this position. His size, build, and talent could be perfect for the guard spot. Wade Smith is a good backup and Washington is probably a non-factor.

RT- Damion McIntosh, Herb Taylor, Barry Richardson

This could actually be one of the deeper positions on the line. McIntosh really came on toward the end of the season and COULD keep his spot. Herb Talyor is knocking on the door and could push for a starting position. Barry Richardson was drafted last season with the thought in mind that HE could be the future at that position. Then, depending on what they want to do with Albert, HE could be at this spot to start the season. I'm not sure the Chiefs will be looking to bring in another player to compete here.

QB- Tyler Thigpen, Quinn Gray, Brodie Croyle, Damon Huard

Your guess is as good as mine here. If Pioli is as good of a talent evaluator as everyone says he is, he'll see that the value we'd have to give up for Cassel isn't nearly worth the difference between he and Thigpen. I doubt the Chiefs trade a pair of firsts for Cassel. Gray was a good back up and should be retained. Croyle would be a cheap, young and talented 3rd QB if no other QB were brought in to compete. Damon Huard probably doesn't have a spot next season.

Defense

LE- Tamba Hali, Wallace Gilberry, Turk McBride

Tamba Hali plays good at LE. I doubt they'll look to replace him. I can't see Turk McBride staying on the team. He just hasn't done enough. I know nothing about Gilberry.

LT- Tank Tyler, Alfonso Boone

Tank is developing nicely and I think the Chiefs got a steal in the 3rd, drafting this guy. Alfonso Boone is a good rotational player and he'll have a roster spot.

RT- Glenn Dorsey Ron Edwards, Derek Lokey

Everyone is freaking out about Dorsey and worrying that he could be Ryan Sims part Deux. That's not the case. Dorsey is going to be a great DT. The problem with him and Tyler going forward is that the Chiefs may not keep the 4-3 and that might spell doom for both players. Edwards is a good rotational player and should have a roster spot next season. I don't know much about Lokey other than he was above average at Texas.

RE- Jason Babin, Andy Studebaker, Brian Johnston

Jason Babin really surprised some people last season and may have won a roster spot going into next season. Although, I seriously doubt he'll be looked at as THE starting LDE. I don't know enough about Studebaker and Johnston to be able to give an informed opinion.

LOLB- Demarrio Williams, Curtis Gatewood

Williams needs to be a backup and the Chiefs need to fill their linebacking positions through free agency.

MLB- Pat Thomas Weston Dacus

See above

ROLB- Derrick Johnson

Johnson is the only good LB the Chiefs have on their team. Since being drafted 15th overall, he has underachieved. This season is going to be a huge year for him as it pertains to his future as a Chief.

LCB- Brandon Carr, Pat Surtain, Maurice Leggett

Brandon Carr and Maurice Leggett did enough last season to be considered for a starting position next season. Look for Pat Surtain to be released.

RCB- Brandon Flowers

Starter.... for a WHILE

SS- Bernard Pollard, DaJuan Morgan

Personally, I like Pollard. His mistakes seem to be basic. If he can figure out how to wrap up, I think we've got a SS for a long time.

FS- Jarrad Page, DaJuan Morgan, Jon McGraw

I wouldn't be surprised to see Page come back. But, I also wouldn't be surprised to see Morgan become the new FS.


The way I see it, the Chiefs NEED only a few players from free agency and the draft, while any other players they bring in would be considered upgrades and would render the players they replace as depth... WHICH IS A GOOD THING!!

This is how I see the roster:

FA/D= Free Agent/Draft

Offense
QB- Thigpen
RB- Johnson
TE- Gonzalez
WR- Bowe, FA/D, Bradley
LT-Albert or D
LG-Waters
C-FA/D
RG-Niswanger/Albert
RT-Taylor/Albert/McIntosh

Defense
LDE-Tamba Hali/Jason Babin
LT-Tyler
RT-Dorsey
RDE-FA/D
ROLB-FA/D
MLB-FA/D
LOLB-Johnson
LCB-Carr/Leggett/FA/D
RCB-Flowers/FA/D
SS-Pollard
FS-Morgan

So, as far as in players the Chiefs NEED to bring in, they really just NEED five players to complete the starting squad (excluding depth). We need a RDE, ROLB, MLB, #2 WR and a Center. The rest of the team CAN be filled through players already on the team.

[jmlamerson]

So out of the 8 OTs (Albert included) that were drafted last year in the 1st round, there were 3 that were capable of starting on the Left side, ( we happen to have one of the 3) and you're saying this is a bad thing???.. The LT position is a hard position to play and Albert's rookie year should not define whether he can play the position or not... Give him 1 or 2 more years before everyone starts calling for his head, calling him a flop or requesting to move him to RG.

Very rarely do we see a tackle come in and dominate in the fashion of Joe Thomas (especailly if he played OG in college)...I think Joe making the pro bowl the last 2 years have caused unrealistic expectations from football fans whose team drafts OTs in the first round.

Players get owned from the Highschool to college transition, and that happening from the College to pro transition should not surprise us either... We need patience when it comes to developing players!!

Come on. I didn't even come close to calling him a flop. I just thought it was funny.

Albert did OK in a pro set and well in a spread. I'm very anxious to see how he does in 2009.

[balto]

Albert also had waters next to him

Don't get me wrong I love Albert, but we need major help on our Oline.......

[texaschief]

These posts are going to be talking about Stafford, as he's the best QB prospect in this draft. Sanchez shouldn't even be in this discussion. There's a chance Stafford could fall to the Chiefs and this post, while be applicable to Sanchez as well, is aimed more at the possibility of Stafford being on the board at #3.

Drafting ANY QB with the top 3 pick in the draft will be undoubtedly THE BIGGEST gamble EVER in the history of this organization. Of the last 35 QBs taken in the first round, only 10 of them have ever made the Pro Bowl. Only 22 of those 35 have been starters for ANY NFL team. That's nearly a 70% bust rate for 1st round QBs. Only WRs have a worse record. There are SERIOUS questions about Stafford and Sanchez being franchise QBs. For a team like the Chiefs who have serious holes on their defense and offensive line, taking a 30% chance of hitting on a franchise QB during one of the last uncapped rookie salary years is just a gamble the Chiefs SHOULD NOT take.

I bet all these guys had reason to be taken in the first as well:
Ryan Leaf-2
Cade McNown-12
Akili Smith-3
Tim Couch-1
Patrick Ramsey-32
Joey Harrington-3
David Carr-1
Rex Grossman-22
Kyle Boller-19
Byron Leftwich-7
Alex Smith-1

Since 1998, there have been 30 QBs taken in the first round. Of those drafted, I'm excluding Russell, Quinn, Leinart, Rogers, Losman and Campbell because they haven't had enough time to prove they're a success or bust.

I'd consider 11 (including Culpepper) of the 30 to be successful. 36%

The remaining 13 were obvious busts. If you think the 6 I excluded won't amount to much, that raises the bust percentage to 63%. You toss up numbers from the players who other teams hit on. If I were going to base my decision off pure numbers alone, there are probably 5 or 6 guys on the list I just posted that I'd take over Stafford.

The fact remains that taking a gamble on a QB in the top 3 IN THIS DRAFT is still an overwhelming gamble this team shouldn't take when you take into account the ineptitude of the Chiefs O-line, the fact this is one of the last uncapped salary years for rookies and the questions about Stafford being a legit pro QB. If this kid was Peyton Manning or Phillip Rivers who were considered "can't miss QB prospects" coming out of college, then I'd at the very least understand your opinion. But Stafford isn't considered that "can't miss" type of QB. So much so that some people think he should stay for his senior year to help him develop.

Stafford played like sh!t in the big games against legit opponents like Florida and Alabama AND poor opponents like Tennessee and Vandy. In those 4 games, he threw 8 INTs. His team was good enough against Tennessee and Vandy to overcome 2 INTs in those games each. His highest completion % game was against Tennessee. He went 25 of 36 in that game. Hell, Thigpen did that against NFL competition when they played the Jets where he went 25 of 36 as well. Just based on accuracy alone, I'd rather stick with Thigpen who's proven that he can complete passes against NFL talent as he finished the year with a 56.8% comp% INCLUDING the Oakland AND Atlanta games. Stafford finished the year with a 61.1 comp% against an uncharacteristically weak schedule in the SEC this season.

Those numbers just don't make me want to go out and thank God for Stafford falling to us at #3 if that were to happen. Especially if I'm going to have to drop a huge salary on a player who's ten year history shows there's only a 36% chance of him being successful anyway.

The risk factor is all I've been talking about. Stafford could step in a become Joe Montana. Who knows. But looking at the history of 1st rd QBs over the last ten to fifteen years, are you really prepared to take a 36% chance of him being a great QB worth one of the last HUGE rookie salary contracts when we still have other spots that could be filled with lesser risk players?

We have seen teams get repeatedly burned with drafting QBs high. We could be THE LAST team to get burned with a HUGE QB salary for a guy who has a statistically good chance of busting and it would put the Chiefs at a competitive disadvantage if Stafford becomes the next Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, or Akili Smith.

In the history of the NFL, here's the list of 1st round QB who have won the Super Bowl.

As of the 2007 season:
Joe Namath - Super Bowl III
Bob Griese - Super Bowl VII and VIII
Terry Bradshaw - Super Bowls IX, X, XII, and XIII
Jim Plunkett - Super Bowls XV and XVIII
Jim McMahon - Super Bowl XX
Phil Simms - Super Bowl XXI
Doug Williams - Super Bowl XXII
Troy Aikman - Super Bowls XXVII, XXVIII, and
Steve Young - Super Bowl XXIX
John Elway - Super Bowls XXXII and XXXIII
Trent Dilfer - Super Bowl XXXV
Ben Roethlisberger - Super Bowl XL
Peyton Manning - Super Bowl XLI

Almost 50 years and we have a list of 13 QBs. I'm just not convinced taking Stafford is the surest thing to helping this team that we'll have with the 3rd pick in the draft.


Being that the Chiefs are drafting 3rd, they probably won't be able to trade down. Teams know what kind of players that will be taken by the first 3 teams they'll be QBs and OTs. The players teams will want to trade up for will be available at pick 4 and lower. Plus, the rookie contracts that will be handed out in the top 3 are heavy burdens to any team. You hardly EVER see teams trade up to the top 3 anymore.

This team needs to complete their offensive line before they commit to another rookie QB.

[texaschief]

The success rate of top 10 draft picks in the NFL: By Position

Players Selected in the top 10 between 1994 and 2004.

Odds of drafting a consistent STARTER by Position

DT:***

OL:***

WR: 86%

DE: 77%

CB:76%

RB: 67%

QB: 46%


***No defensive tackle or offensive lineman drafted between 1994-2004 has busted. Defensive tackles and offensive lineman that are drafted in the top ten are the most likely (at minimum) to become starters.

Odds of Drafting a Pro-Bowler by Position

RB: 56%

OL: 54%

DT: 50%

WR: 39%

CB: 38 %

QB: 33%

DE: 33%

Cornerbacks

Pro Bowlers
DeAngelo Hall
Champ Bailey
Chris McAlister
Shawn Springs
Charles Woodson

Starters
Dunta Robinson
Terence Newman
Quentin Jammer
Duane Starks
Bryant Westbrook

Busts
Tommy Knight
Michael Booker
Alex Molden

76 percent of cornerbacks drafted

became (at minimum) consistent starters
38 percent of cornerbacks selected became

all-pro caliber players
24 percent of cornerbacks selected became busts

Criteria
All-Pro Caliber: Player must make one Pro Bowl

Starter: Player must start at least 75 percent games over career or have more than 80 career starts
Bust: Players start less than 75 percent of games over course of career (Player must have been in the NFL for at least three calendar years or have played in at least 48 games to qualify. If a player is no longer in the NFL, this requirement is waived).

Wide Receivers

Pro Bowlers
Larry Fitzgerald
Andre Johnson
Koren Robinson
Torry Holt
David Boston
Keyshawn Johnson
Terry Glenn


Starters
Roy Williams
Reggie Williams
Peter Warrick
Plaxico Burress
Travis Taylor
Ike Hilliard
Michael Westbrook
Joey Galloway

Busts
Charles Rogers
David Terrell
J.J. Stokes


86 percent of receivers became (at minimum) consistent

starters

39 percent of receivers became all-pro caliber players

14 percent of receivers became busts
Criteria
All-Pro Caliber: Player must make one Pro Bowl

Starter: Player must start at least 75 percent of career games or have more than 80 career starts
Bust: Players start less than 75 percent of games over course of career (Player must have been in the NFL for at least three

calendar years or have played in at least 48 games to qualify. If a player is no longer in the NFL, this requirement is waived).

Quarterbacks

Pro Bowlers
Carson Palmer
Michael Vick
Donovan McNabb
Peyton Manning
Steve McNair

Starters
Trent Dilfer
Kerry Collins

Busts
Joey Harrington
Tim Couch
David Carr
Akili Smith
Ryan Leaf
Heath Shuler

Criteria
All-Pro Caliber: Quarterback must make at least one Pro Bowl and have a career quarterback rating of 75. If a quarterback makes multiple Pro-Bowls the minimum quarterback rating requirement is waived.
Starter: Must have a minimum of 60 games started and a minimum career quarterback rating of 75. If a quarterback reaches 100 starts, a minimum quarterback rating of 70 is necessary.
Bust: Must have a minimum of 55 games started and have a quarterback rating under 75. If a player no longer in the NFL, the minimum games started requirement is waived.
Not Gradable: Players have not started the 55 game minimum requirement and are still active in the NFL 

Peyton Manning
Steve McNair
46 percent of quarterbacks became (at minimum) consistent starters
33 percent of quarterbacks drafted became all-pro caliber players
41 percent of quarterbacks became busts
************************************************** *************
+/- of 13 percent exists due to quarterbacks who could not be graded 
 



Running Backs

Pro Bowlers
LaDanian Tomlinson
Jamal Lewis
Edgerrin James
Ricky Williams
Marshall Faulk

Starters
Fred Taylor

Busts
Curtis Enis
Lawrence Phillips
Ki-Jana Carter

67 percent of running backs became
(at minimum) consistent starters
56 percent of running backs became all-pro
caliber players
33 percent of running backs became busts
Criteria
All-Pro Caliber: Player must make one Pro Bowl
Starter: Player must start at least 75 percent of games over career or have more than 80 career starts
Bust: Players start less than 75 percent of games over course of career (Player must have been in the NFL for at least three calendar years or have played in at least 48 games to qualify. If a player is no longer in the NFL, this requirement is waived). 



Defensive Tackles

Pro Bowlers
Sam Adams
Bryant Young
Kevin Williams
Bryant Young
John Henderson
Corey Simon
Darrell Russell

Starters
Johnathan Sullivan
Dewayne Robertson
Ryan Sims
Gerard Warren
Dan Wilkinson

Busts
NONE

100 percent of defensive tackles drafted
became (at minimum) consistent starters
50 percent of defensive tackles drafted became
all-pro caliber players
Criteria
All-Pro Caliber: Player must make one Pro Bowl
Starter: Player must start at least 75 percent of career games or have more than 80 career starts
Bust: Players start less than 75 percent of games over course of career (Player must have been in the NFL for at least three calendar years or have played in at least 48 games to qualify. If a player is no longer in the NFL, this requirement is waived).


Offensive Linemen

Pro Bowlers
Orlando Pace
Walter Jones
Jonathan Ogden
Willie Anderson
Tony Boselli
Chris Samuels
Kyle Turley

Starters
Robert Gallery
Jordan Gross
Mike Williams
Bryant McKinnie
Levi Jones
Leonard Davis
Chris Naeole

Busts
NONE

100 percent of offensive lineman drafted became
(at minimum) consistent starters in the NFL
54 percent of offensive lineman drafted became
all-pro caliber players
Criteria
All-Pro Caliber: Player must make one Pro Bowl
Starter: Player must start at least 75 percent career games or have more than 80 career starts
Bust: Players start less than 75 percent of games over course of career (Player must have been in the NFL for at least three calendar years or have played in at least 48 games to qualify. If a player is no longer in the NFL, this requirement is waived).

Defensive Ends

Pro Bowlers
Julius Peppers
Richard Seymour
Simeon Rice

Starters
Courtney Brown
Greg Ellis
Grant Wistrom
Mike Mamula

Busts
Jamal Reynolds
Andre Wadsworth

77 percent of defensive ends drafted became
(at minimum) consistent starters
33 percent of defensive ends became all-pro
caliber players
23 percent of defensive ends became busts
Criteria
All-Pro Caliber: Player must make one Pro Bowl
Starter: Player must start at least 75 percent of career games or have more than 80 career starts
Bust: Players start less than 75 percent of games over course of career (Player must have been in the NFL for at least three calendar years or have played in at least 48 games to qualify. If a player is no longer in the NFL, this requirement is waived).

[texaschief]

Every first round pick a gamble. No pick is guaranteed. We have been playing it safe with Carl for 20 years with this franchise. Where did that get us? NOWHERE!!! Drop the fear of drafting QB's high. There have been LB's, OL that have flopped when they were drafted high as well, it's just not QB's. The best teams in the league all weren't scared of taking QB's early in the first round, now look at them. Steelers, Giants, Colts, Eagles, Chargers (even after the Ryan Leaf debacle) just to name a few. If the scouts and manangement grade out Sanchez to be a franchise QB, you can bet he will be the pick. Now if you don't like Sanchez as a prospect then ok, you're entitled to your opinion...but to not want to take a guy just because he's a gamble and it's risky drafting a QB early is ridiculous and the mindset of mediocrity. I wonder if the guys who don't want a Sanchez or Stafford have seen these guys even play?

Sanchez has played in a pro system, the arm strength to make all the throws, leadership qualities, passion for the game, studies the game, makes good decisions with the football, is an accurate thrower, mobile, good mechanics, good size and will command a huddle. What's not to like? He has all the tools.

To be great you need to take risks. Not have serviceable QB's back there that will make us 8-8, 9-7, 6-10 every year. Doesn't anyone want to win a Super Bowl? I'm tired of seeing everyone's team win and not mine. And QB is where it starts, not with a cover OLB like Aaron Curry. His impact on the game is minimal compared to a QB and is not worth the money or value of a #3 pick. Only speed rushing OLB's comparable to LT and DT should be picked that high.

I had to watch UGA play EVERY week because my buddy is a HUGE UGA fan and we bought the game day package at my house. I watched Stafford play knowing he could be a possibility for the Chiefs. I don't like the guy as a prospect as a bunch of "experts" don't. He's immobile and he consistently makes poor decisions under pressure. He's got one of the better arms I've seen, no doubt. But he wouldn't have been picked higher than Ryan OR Flacco had they all been in the same class.

Sanchez has proven NOTHING. He too is immobile and overrated due to being at USC. If it's a USC QB you want, why not trade a 2010 pick and get a two year starter and heisman trophy winner from the Cardinals? At least HE has a better resume and better knees.

When people like me talk about risk, it's applicable. Especially when we're talking about a team as young and incomplete as the Chiefs are. We all saw how inefficient the Chiefs were at offense when they weren't running the spread. This O-line, as it stands now, is no different and it's naive to think putting a different QB under center is going to help.

Some of the teams you referenced, such as the Steelers, Giants, and Chargers, had a lot more going for them than just getting a QB in the first round. LT and Shawn Merriman had a little to do with the Charger's success. Eli Manning STILL isn't all that great, but did enough not to mess his team up last season. The Steelers were built before Big Ben showed up. In fact, after Maddox got hurt, everyone wrote the Steelers off. The reason Roethlisberger has looked as good as he has is because of the team around him. But still, after his accident, he's not the guy he was his rookie season. Hell, the only reason Ryan and Flacco looked so good last season was because their teams were almost complete and they were the last pieces to the puzzle. If you go back and look at the successful QBs to come out of the first couple rounds, you'll see that their teams were almost complete when they took over. Hardly ever do you see the Peyton Manning model where they built from the QB out... and even in that model, it took until Manning's 9th year in the league to get to the Super Bowl.

Like I said earlier, the "bust rate" for QBs is the second highest among all positions drafted in the top 10. I'm not excited to draft a guy who's position history shows at 63% failure rate when we have SO many positions to fill or upgrade. We can't afford to miss on the 3rd pick in the draft this season. The SAFEST pick is LT. If a LT busts, you can move him to another spot on the line. If a QB busts, you now have a glorified waterboy. Personally, I'd rather have the highest paid RT or OG in the league than the highest paid waterboy.

[jap1]

Wow Tex, that is some nice research. It is nice to see the data on what everyone always says about OL and DL draft picks. Only question, what about LBs? That might be interesting since a lot of people want Aaron Curry. Once again, impressive.

[chief31]

There's no way in hell the Panthers lose Peppers AND Gross.

The Chiefs have the means to fill any and all holes this off season. RDE is definitely a priority. The loss of Allen was big, but it was seemingly inevitable considering how much he wanted out and the fact that he had turned down a contract extension. I think the Chiefs got good value for him and to expect to replace him in one season was an unrealistic expectation.

The only offer The Chiefs made to Jared was the franchise offer. He did not turn down any long term offer. In fact, he didn't even turn down that offer. He didn't want to leave.

And, even if he had turned down an offer, that doesn't suggest, in the slightest, that he didn't want to be here. Who accepts the very first offer?

He had just opened his own restaraunt in KC. He had plans to stay here for a very long time.

You know the funny thing. Of all the QBs you mentioned, all were 1st rounders except for Tavaris Jackson (2nd rounder) and Frotte (7th, I think).

I'm not disagreeing with your point overall, but if you look at this year's playoffs, you have nine 1st rounders, one 2nd rounder (Tavaris again), and two undrafted guys who have been to/won a SB (Warner and Delhomme).

The era of non-elite QBs winning the SB may be behind us.

I don't see how you can see this as the end of the "non-elite" QBs.

Where was Kurt Warner drafted? Tom Brady? I think that this is the beginning of the "non-elite" QBs era.

I understand guys wanting to build the line first, but a team starts at o-line? That's crazy talk.

Disagreeing with you is far from crazy.

The Steelers just won a super bowl with a horrid offensive line. The Cardinals O-line wasn't much to speak about either.

Neither of those O-lines is horrible. Both are one-sided. The Steelers have a great run blocking line, while The Cards have a great pass protecting line. And they are both bad at the opposites.

A team starts with its QB period. It's the most important position in football. We can build our offensive line through FA and later rounds in the draft since we already have our LT.

I completely disagree with that. How many QBs have we injured since the departure of Willie Roaf? How about since Shields left?

Go ahead and bring in a QB. Then cheer for his recovery from a season ending injury.

Oh wait. We all turn on those injured QBs, don't we? (Croyle...Huard?)

We can also build our defense through FA and the draft the next 2 years. Has anyone looked at the prospects on defense for the draft next year? It's filled with studs. This year...not so much. This isn't a one year fix to try and win the Super Bowl next year. We need to to have patience, it's going to take a few years. That's why I don't have a problem developing Sanchez. He has potential to be a franchise guy that can lead us where we all wanna go.

You don't win Super Bowls with serviceable QB's anymore.

Really? What was Kurt Warner the past few years? He wasn't even servicable. He was a competent back-up. And that's all.

Granted, he didn't win. But he did enough to win. (Great game!)

And, when he did win, with The Rams, where did he come from? He was a nobody.

The only exception being Dilfer, but that Ravens D is top 3 of all time. As Chiefs fans we should know that. In the 90's we had a above average defense and arguably the best offensive line in the league.

No argument. The Cowboys had the best. No comparison.

Didn't they do pretty good in the 90's?

But never had that franchise QB and it got us nowhere and very few playoff wins. I just think the fan base is petrified of drafting a QB high for some reason.

Had we won a couple of Super Bowls in that era, then whoever we had at QB would have been considered that "franchise QB", as Eli Manning is now. And he only won one.

I have no fear of taking a QB this high. If we have the means to protect him, and he is worthy of the selection.

I haven't bothered to evaluate Sanchez, nor Stafford. Because I know that we don't have the means to protect.

Amen!!! I think we're the only 2 that agree on this.

As I've stated before, I would much rather take a Sanchez or Stafford this year than a Colt or Tebow next year... I'm not all that confident about Bradford either.

If we spend wisely on FA D players we can definitely make it happen w/ Sanchez as our #3 pick.

It also helps that we're drafting at the top of every round... If we pick Sanchez at #3 then we can look to fill in the RT position w/ our 2nd round pick and a C w/ our 3rd round pick. I think this year is pretty deep in those 2 positions.

And I don't understand why everyone has given up on B. Albert already w/ all the, "move him to RG or RT". Give him some freakin time at the LT position. IMO he was the 3rd best Rookie LT last year behind J. Long and R. Clady...

I think we can and will find a very solid RT in the 2nd Round

I have yet to see Albert play as an NFL LOT. He didn't make much of an impression on me when we were running an NFL style offense.

What I don't understand is anyone saying that we have the LOT position nailed down.

Really? Because he managed to do well in an offense that made Macintosh look good?

I am certainly not buying that.

Not that I believe he is incapable of being an NFL LOT. But that he is a top-flight OG prospect, and a decent LOT prospect.

And, since he didn't get to play in a real NFL offense, I consider him nothing more than a prospect.

I am far from against an offense that passes alot. That's fine by me.

But, you have to be able to pound it, when you need to.

The Cardinals were a fluke. They were a mediocre team, that happened to get the "W"s when it mattered most.

That's why they haven't been in the playoffs up to this season. It just so happened that the rest of their division decided to be worse than mediocre for a change. So The Cards got in by default.

I have a bad feeling about having Haley as our HC. The fact that he has never been a HC is his biggest plus, in my eyes.

I don't like The Cards' offense. It is one-dimensional.

It's the same kind of offense that accumulated the highly impressive 9-7 in '08 that got them to 5-11 in '07 and '06.

In fact, it's the same type of offense that they ran with Dennis Green. All passing, and no running.

Not to mention, with the exception of this seasons few playoff games, they have never played good defense.

Hopefully, all of that is not to be blamed on Haley. Hopefully, he has a different outlook than that, as our HC.

I will say that I definitely prefer him to Herm, or Shanahan. But I do have some serious doubts about Haley.

While surprised to see some of TCs opinions in here, I agreewhole-heartedly with alot of what he is saying.

(Nice to see you looking some things up too.)

There isn't a single doubt in my mind, that the five starting O-line positions combine to be far more important than the single QB position.

Very nice work, TC!

[jmlamerson]

Good analysis.

But Mike Williams and Leonard Davis were busts for the teams that drafted them (Bills and Cards). Robert Gallery is certainly not who the Raiders would pick if they had that pick to do over.

Sanme with some DTs. The Jets whiffed on the Dewayne Robertson pick, the Bengals with Wilkinson, Saints with Sullivan, the Browns were not happy with the Courtney Brown draft pick, and the Chiefs with the Ryan Sims pick.

I think you're overlooking that some players, while successful later, were busts for the team that drafted them.

I would agree that OT is by far the safest top-10 pick.

[jmlamerson]

Where was Kurt Warner drafted? Tom Brady? I think that this is the beginning of the "non-elite" QBs era.

Even though they were drafted low or undrafted, that doesn't mean Brady and Warner aren't elite. They own a whole lot of NFL records and a few MVPs and SBs between them.

By non-elite, I mean that it is decenty impossible to win a SB with a non-1st rounder who isn't in the top-10 at his position. 1st round guys can do it and supremely talented later round guys can do it, but the QB position can't be left in the hands of anyone.

[chief31]

Even though they were drafted low or undrafted, that doesn't mean Brady and Warner aren't elite. They own a whole lot of NFL records and a few MVPs and SBs between them.

By non-elite, I mean that it is decenty impossible to win a SB with a non-1st rounder who isn't in the top-10 at his position. 1st round guys can do it and supremely talented later round guys can do it, but the QB position can't be left in the hands of anyone.

I thought you might say that.

So, how about Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning?