Somewhere today I read a prediction that this season Alex would have just over 4,000 yards passing and just over 400 yards rushing. For a total of about 4,450 total yards. Last year his yards were 3,486 passing, 498 rushing, 3,984 total. So the prediction was for an increase in total yards of about 10% or about 29 yards per game (based on Alex playing all 16 games).

Everybody knows I like Alex and think he is much better than he gets credit for, but my first reaction was..."Alex Smith...almost 4,500 total yards in a season? NO WAY!" But I figured I had better check some stats.

In 2012 (10 games, last year with the 9ers) he had an average of 186.9 combined yards per game. In 2013 (15 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 249.5 yards per game. An increase of 62.6 yards combined per game. And increase of OVER 30%. In 2014 (15 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 234.6 combined yards per game. A decrease of 14.9 combined yards per game. 7%. In 2015 (16 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 249 yards per game. He was basically back to his 2013 averages.

So what is my conclusion? Roughly 250 combined yards per game is basically the Alex Smith "normal" with the Chiefs right now. So the prediction of 281.2 combined yards per game (16 game season--12.5% increase--is a STRETCH).

BUT....Here is the thing in both 2013 and 2015 he had over 400 yards rushing (431 and 498 respectively) but in 2014 he only had 254 yards rushing. And that accounted for most of his decline from 2013. His 2015 passing was 217.9 p/g, 2014 was 217.7 and 2013 was 220.9. So we shouldn't expect a huge increase in passing yards per game unless Reid completely abandons the run. And I think 500 Y/P/G rushing is probably close to his cap.

So IMO it all comes down to how much can the passing game improve? And most of that will be on the receivers and tight ends.

All in all I have a hard time seeing Alex going much over 260 combined yards per game for a total of maybe 4,160 based on a 16 game season. I think that is about his cap barring us having the best O-Line in the NFL.

What do y'all think?