2010 draft order and SOS

[Pro_Angler]

The first 20 spots are locked in, but the remaining slots can still change depending on the playoff results. Team record and strength of schedule (SOS) are in parentheses.


1) St. Louis (1-15, .520)
2) Detroit (2-14, .523)
3) Tampa Bay (3-13, .555)
4) Washington (4-12, .492)
5) Kansas City (4-12, .516)
6) Seattle (5-11, .477)
7) Cleveland (5-11, .512)
8) Oakland (5-11, .527)
9) Buffalo (6-10, .516)
10-11) Chicago (7-9, .496)
10-11) Jacksonville (7-9, .496)
12) Miami (7-9, .559)
13) San Francisco (8-8, .477)
14) Denver (8-8, .527)
15) NY Giants (8-8, .535)
16-17) Tennessee (8-8, .539)
16-17) Carolina (8-8, .539)
18) Pittsburgh (9-7, .488)
19-20) Atlanta (9-7, .504)
19-20) Houston (9-7, .504)


Subject to Change:
21) New York Jets (9-7, .516)
22) Baltimore (9-7, .523)
23) Arizona (10-6, .445)
24) Cincinnati (10-6, .492)
25) New England (10-6, .516)
26) Green Bay (11-5, .441)
27) Philadelphia (11-5, .484)
28) Dallas (11-5, .488)
29) Minnesota (12-4, .441)
30) San Diego (13-3, .453)
31) New Orleans (13-3, .426) [Super Bowl Loser]
32) Indianapolis (14-2, .473) [Super Bowl Winner]


The three ties will be decided by coin flip prior to the draft because all three involve teams from two different conferences.


Tiebreaking Procedures


The draft tiebreakers are as follows:

1) Super Bowl Winner picks 32nd

2) Super Bowl Loser picks 31st

3) Teams are ranked in inverse order of their record. Ties count as a half win and half loss.

4) A playoff team always picks after a non-playoff team with the same regular season record. If two playoff teams have the same regular season record, but one was eliminated in an earlier round, that team picks first.

5) Ties are then broken using strength of schedule (average of all 16 opponent's winning percentage, divisionmates count twice since they were played twice. Or count the wins of all opponents, same result). Weaker schedule picks earlier.

6) If SOS fails to break the tie, and the teams are in the same division, apply the division playoff tiebreakers (except the "loser" picks higher).

7) If SOS fails to break the tie, the teams are not in the same division, but the teams are in the same conference, apply the conference playoff tiebreakers (except the "loser" picks higher).

8) If the teams are still tied, or are in different conferences, a coin toss decides the order. If three teams are tied such that the tie can be broken as to two teams, but not between any of those two and a third team, the "loser" of the two-team tie flips against the other team first. A scenario where all three teams are stone tied is nearly impossible since there are only two conferences and intraconference tiebreakers go very deep before a coin flip.


2009 NFL Strength of Schedule After Regular Season

1) Miami (.559)
2) Tampa Bay (.555)
3) Carolina (.539)
3) Tennessee (.539)
5) NY Giants (.535)
6) Denver (.527)
6) Oakland (.527)
8) Baltimore (.523)
8) Detroit (.523)
10) St. Louis (.520)
11) NY Jets (.516)
11) Kansas City (.516)
11) Buffalo (.516)
11) New England (.516)
15) Cleveland (.512)
16) Houston (.504)
16) Atlanta (.504)
18) Chicago (.496)
18) Jacksonville (.496)
20) Cincinnati (.492)
20) Washington (.492)

22) Dallas (.488)
22) Pittsburgh (.488)
24) Philadelphia (.484)
25) San Francisco (.477)
25) Seattle (.477)
27) Indianapolis (.473)
28) San Diego (.453)
29) Arizona (.445)
30) Green Bay (.441)
30) Minnesota (.441)
32) New Orleans (.426)

We had a higher SOS then WAshington so why are they rafting 4th and not us?>> Feel free to copy and paste and add your mock draft to this..

[yashi]

True that....but you are already in the midst of breeding a losing atmosphere, losing 3 games instead of 4 would not have mattered.

Now I'm not saying that they should have thrown the game, but it would have been really nice to get Suh or Berry. I think there is a big drop off afte those 2 guys and I expect St.Louis to take a QB.

I like those guys too, but I wouldn't trade the opportunity for every player on the team to experience a great win and gain a lot of confidence going into the offseason just for a chance to get them. It's just 1 player on a team of 22 starters, plus all of the coaches and scheming. I still think Berry is a possibility. It would just require both StL and Washington to go QB.

Basically, I like the fact that we're undefeated this decade a lot more than a likelier shot at Suh/Berry.

[70 chiefsfan70]

Its never a good idea to loose, it teaches the players to not give their all and is very habit forming.

Also now the team and fans know we can beat the donkeys in their house!

[josh1971]

I also like the idea of trading out of the #5 spot and getting a couple more picks for it.

[jap1]

The first 20 spots are locked in, but the remaining slots can still change depending on the playoff results. Team record and strength of schedule (SOS) are in parentheses.


1) St. Louis (1-15, .520)
2) Detroit (2-14, .523)
3) Tampa Bay (3-13, .555)
4) Washington (4-12, .492)
5) Kansas City (4-12, .516)
6) Seattle (5-11, .477)
7) Cleveland (5-11, .512)
8) Oakland (5-11, .527)
9) Buffalo (6-10, .516)
10-11) Chicago (7-9, .496)
10-11) Jacksonville (7-9, .496)
12) Miami (7-9, .559)
13) San Francisco (8-8, .477)
14) Denver (8-8, .527)
15) NY Giants (8-8, .535)
16-17) Tennessee (8-8, .539)
16-17) Carolina (8-8, .539)
18) Pittsburgh (9-7, .488)
19-20) Atlanta (9-7, .504)
19-20) Houston (9-7, .504)


Subject to Change:
21) New York Jets (9-7, .516)
22) Baltimore (9-7, .523)
23) Arizona (10-6, .445)
24) Cincinnati (10-6, .492)
25) New England (10-6, .516)
26) Green Bay (11-5, .441)
27) Philadelphia (11-5, .484)
28) Dallas (11-5, .488)
29) Minnesota (12-4, .441)
30) San Diego (13-3, .453)
31) New Orleans (13-3, .426) [Super Bowl Loser]
32) Indianapolis (14-2, .473) [Super Bowl Winner]


The three ties will be decided by coin flip prior to the draft because all three involve teams from two different conferences.


Tiebreaking Procedures


The draft tiebreakers are as follows:

1) Super Bowl Winner picks 32nd

2) Super Bowl Loser picks 31st

3) Teams are ranked in inverse order of their record. Ties count as a half win and half loss.

4) A playoff team always picks after a non-playoff team with the same regular season record. If two playoff teams have the same regular season record, but one was eliminated in an earlier round, that team picks first.

5) Ties are then broken using strength of schedule (average of all 16 opponent's winning percentage, divisionmates count twice since they were played twice. Or count the wins of all opponents, same result). Weaker schedule picks earlier.

6) If SOS fails to break the tie, and the teams are in the same division, apply the division playoff tiebreakers (except the "loser" picks higher).

7) If SOS fails to break the tie, the teams are not in the same division, but the teams are in the same conference, apply the conference playoff tiebreakers (except the "loser" picks higher).

8) If the teams are still tied, or are in different conferences, a coin toss decides the order. If three teams are tied such that the tie can be broken as to two teams, but not between any of those two and a third team, the "loser" of the two-team tie flips against the other team first. A scenario where all three teams are stone tied is nearly impossible since there are only two conferences and intraconference tiebreakers go very deep before a coin flip.


2009 NFL Strength of Schedule After Regular Season

1) Miami (.559)
2) Tampa Bay (.555)
3) Carolina (.539)
3) Tennessee (.539)
5) NY Giants (.535)
6) Denver (.527)
6) Oakland (.527)
8) Baltimore (.523)
8) Detroit (.523)
10) St. Louis (.520)
11) NY Jets (.516)
11) Kansas City (.516)
11) Buffalo (.516)
11) New England (.516)
15) Cleveland (.512)
16) Houston (.504)
16) Atlanta (.504)
18) Chicago (.496)
18) Jacksonville (.496)
20) Cincinnati (.492)
20) Washington (.492)

22) Dallas (.488)
22) Pittsburgh (.488)
24) Philadelphia (.484)
25) San Francisco (.477)
25) Seattle (.477)
27) Indianapolis (.473)
28) San Diego (.453)
29) Arizona (.445)
30) Green Bay (.441)
30) Minnesota (.441)
32) New Orleans (.426)

We had a higher SOS then WAshington so why are they rafting 4th and not us?>> Feel free to copy and paste and add your mock draft to this..

Look at the tiebreaker procedures. Read #5 for the answer to your question.

[jap1]

I also like the idea of trading out of the #5 spot and getting a couple more picks for it.

I would love to do that. Drop back to mid 1st round and pick up another 2nd round pick. Hopefully some team wants a player bad enough to trade with us that they think seattle, cleveland, or oakland wants. Maybe they will really want one of the QBs that are out there.

[OPLookn]

Can people please stop talking like we're going to draft Suh? We will have a 2nd year and a 3rd year DE's next season...why on earth would we draft yet another DE? If anything we'll get an experienced DE in the off season to show Jackson and Dorsey what it takes to be good. Not only that but it is my understanding that Suh is a proto-typical 4-3 DE and wouldn't be great as a OLB...could be wrong but that's my understanding.

Would LOVE to see Okung here but I'm always in favor of trading down to someone who wants get a QB for sure.

[AussieChiefsFan]

Because we had the same record and played better teams, so in theory we are a better team than they are and should draft lower.

Thats what i was thinking throughout the season. We DID have a tough schedule

[pbatrucker]

Let's not forget that the 49ers need a QB and they have 2 firsts. Trading down is a remote possibilty.

[Coach]

The first 20 spots are locked in, but the remaining slots can still change depending on the playoff results. Team record and strength of schedule (SOS) are in parentheses.


1) St. Louis (1-15, .520)
2) Detroit (2-14, .523)
3) Tampa Bay (3-13, .555)
4) Washington (4-12, .492)
5) Kansas City (4-12, .516)
6) Seattle (5-11, .477)
7) Cleveland (5-11, .512)
8) Oakland (5-11, .527)
9) Buffalo (6-10, .516)
10-11) Chicago (7-9, .496)
10-11) Jacksonville (7-9, .496)
12) Miami (7-9, .559)
13) San Francisco (8-8, .477)
14) Denver (8-8, .527)
15) NY Giants (8-8, .535)
16-17) Tennessee (8-8, .539)
16-17) Carolina (8-8, .539)
18) Pittsburgh (9-7, .488)
19-20) Atlanta (9-7, .504)
19-20) Houston (9-7, .504)


Subject to Change:
21) New York Jets (9-7, .516)
22) Baltimore (9-7, .523)
23) Arizona (10-6, .445)
24) Cincinnati (10-6, .492)
25) New England (10-6, .516)
26) Green Bay (11-5, .441)
27) Philadelphia (11-5, .484)
28) Dallas (11-5, .488)
29) Minnesota (12-4, .441)
30) San Diego (13-3, .453)
31) New Orleans (13-3, .426) [Super Bowl Loser]
32) Indianapolis (14-2, .473) [Super Bowl Winner]


The three ties will be decided by coin flip prior to the draft because all three involve teams from two different conferences.


Tiebreaking Procedures


The draft tiebreakers are as follows:

1) Super Bowl Winner picks 32nd

2) Super Bowl Loser picks 31st

3) Teams are ranked in inverse order of their record. Ties count as a half win and half loss.

4) A playoff team always picks after a non-playoff team with the same regular season record. If two playoff teams have the same regular season record, but one was eliminated in an earlier round, that team picks first.

5) Ties are then broken using strength of schedule (average of all 16 opponent's winning percentage, divisionmates count twice since they were played twice. Or count the wins of all opponents, same result). Weaker schedule picks earlier.

6) If SOS fails to break the tie, and the teams are in the same division, apply the division playoff tiebreakers (except the "loser" picks higher).

7) If SOS fails to break the tie, the teams are not in the same division, but the teams are in the same conference, apply the conference playoff tiebreakers (except the "loser" picks higher).

8) If the teams are still tied, or are in different conferences, a coin toss decides the order. If three teams are tied such that the tie can be broken as to two teams, but not between any of those two and a third team, the "loser" of the two-team tie flips against the other team first. A scenario where all three teams are stone tied is nearly impossible since there are only two conferences and intraconference tiebreakers go very deep before a coin flip.


2009 NFL Strength of Schedule After Regular Season

1) Miami (.559)
2) Tampa Bay (.555)
3) Carolina (.539)
3) Tennessee (.539)
5) NY Giants (.535)
6) Denver (.527)
6) Oakland (.527)
8) Baltimore (.523)
8) Detroit (.523)
10) St. Louis (.520)
11) NY Jets (.516)
11) Kansas City (.516)
11) Buffalo (.516)
11) New England (.516)
15) Cleveland (.512)
16) Houston (.504)
16) Atlanta (.504)
18) Chicago (.496)
18) Jacksonville (.496)
20) Cincinnati (.492)
20) Washington (.492)

22) Dallas (.488)
22) Pittsburgh (.488)
24) Philadelphia (.484)
25) San Francisco (.477)
25) Seattle (.477)
27) Indianapolis (.473)
28) San Diego (.453)
29) Arizona (.445)
30) Green Bay (.441)
30) Minnesota (.441)
32) New Orleans (.426)

We had a higher SOS then WAshington so why are they rafting 4th and not us?>> Feel free to copy and paste and add your mock draft to this..

What I find interesting is that only two teams in the NFL had a tougher schedule than the Chiefs and still made the playoffs. And both of those teams(Jets and Ravens) were week 17 wildcards.

Meanwhile, the 6 teams with the easiest schedule, all made the playoffs. I understand that there is a chicken and egg effect going on, but it seems like the schedule is at least partially to blame for the Chiefs record.


Regarding next year's draft. Here is my initial mock draft projection that will only change about 6000 times.
1. STL - QB. I think it's likely that the Bulger era is over. He has a $8.5mm salary heading into the 2010 season. He's as good as gone. Spagnola will want to bring in his own QB. They got the LT last year(Jason Smith), Two DE's in the two prior drafts(Adam Carriker and Chris Long). It's time to go get a QB to compliment Steven Jackson.
Pick: Casey Clausen, Notre Dame

2. DET - DT. The Lions finished the season 25th in the league at defending the rush, and 32nd(last) defending the pass. They need a Big DT. Anyone know of any? In fact during the entire decade where the Lions consistently drafted toward the top of the draft, they only picked one 1st round defensive player. Ernie Sims, who is without question the best defensive player on this team. Stafford, Pettigrew, Johnson, etc. They have to go defense with this pick. The only other option would be LT, but according to the local papers they are content with Backus at LT.
Pick: Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska

3. TAMPA - DT. Not completely sure about this pick, but the Bucs D did finish dead last against the RUN. They wanted Suh, but he's likely gone, so they take the next best DT on the board. They already moved up last year to get their QBOTF. They have a talented OL. They spent money at RB last year. They need help on defense in a big way, but will be looking to trade out of this spot and it could have some value with Washington likely picking a QB next.
Pick: Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma

4. WASH - QB. The skins will have a new Coach in town who will be looking to build this franchise. If it's a coach like Shanahan that will have time to build, then I expect them to take a QB. If it's a less tenured coach, they may look at making due with Jason Campbell. I think it's very doubtful that Jason Campbell is the QBOTF, the better question is if he'll be the QBNY.
Pick: Sam Bradford, Oklahoma

5. KC - OT. The Chiefs still have an anemic pass rush and could look to take a NT, LB, or even a Safety at this spot. But Brian Waters isn't getting any younger and the Chiefs need help everywhere on the OL. The Chiefs backed the money truck up to Matt Cassel's doorstep so look for them to protect their investment. If they could land a starting LT, they could move Branden Albert to RG, RT, or even LG. I think the Chiefs would also entertain the idea of trading down, but I'm going to assume nobody wants to trade into the Top 5 until we have a rookie salary cap.
Pick: Russell Okung, Oklahoma State
6. SEA -S, QB or LT. Hopefully Seattle hints at taking a QB with their pick so that the Chiefs pick becomes worth more to someone looking to grab a QBOTF. The Seahawks are a complete wildcard. QB, RB, OL, S? Since they can get a LT with their 14th pick(Via the Donks), I think they will take the best player on the board.
Pick: Eric Berry, Tennessee

[Bike]

What I find interesting is that only two teams in the NFL had a tougher schedule than the Chiefs and still made the playoffs. And both of those teams(Jets and Ravens) were week 17 wildcards.

Meanwhile, the 6 teams with the easiest schedule, all made the playoffs. I understand that there is a chicken and egg effect going on, but it seems like the schedule is at least partially to blame for the Chiefs record.


Regarding next year's draft. Here is my initial mock draft projection that will only change about 6000 times.
1. STL - QB. I think it's likely that the Bulger era is over. He has a $8.5mm salary heading into the 2010 season. He's as good as gone. Spagnola will want to bring in his own QB. They got the LT last year(Jason Smith), Two DE's in the two prior drafts(Adam Carriker and Chris Long). It's time to go get a QB to compliment Steven Jackson.
Pick: Casey Clausen, Notre Dame

2. DET - DT. The Lions finished the season 25th in the league at defending the rush, and 32nd(last) defending the pass. They need a Big DT. Anyone know of any? In fact during the entire decade where the Lions consistently drafted toward the top of the draft, they only picked one 1st round defensive player. Ernie Sims, who is without question the best defensive player on this team. Stafford, Pettigrew, Johnson, etc. They have to go defense with this pick. The only other option would be LT, but according to the local papers they are content with Backus at LT.
Pick: Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska

3. TAMPA - DT. Not completely sure about this pick, but the Bucs D did finish dead last against the RUN. They wanted Suh, but he's likely gone, so they take the next best DT on the board. They already moved up last year to get their QBOTF. They have a talented OL. They spent money at RB last year. They need help on defense in a big way, but will be looking to trade out of this spot and it could have some value with Washington likely picking a QB next.
Pick: Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma

4. WASH - QB. The skins will have a new Coach in town who will be looking to build this franchise. If it's a coach like Shanahan that will have time to build, then I expect them to take a QB. If it's a less tenured coach, they may look at making due with Jason Campbell. I think it's very doubtful that Jason Campbell is the QBOTF, the better question is if he'll be the QBNY.
Pick: Sam Bradford, Oklahoma

5. KC - OT. The Chiefs still have an anemic pass rush and could look to take a NT, LB, or even a Safety at this spot. But Brian Waters isn't getting any younger and the Chiefs need help everywhere on the OL. The Chiefs backed the money truck up to Matt Cassel's doorstep so look for them to protect their investment. If they could land a starting LT, they could move Branden Albert to RG, RT, or even LG. I think the Chiefs would also entertain the idea of trading down, but I'm going to assume nobody wants to trade into the Top 5 until we have a rookie salary cap.
Pick: Russell Okung, Oklahoma State
6. SEA -S, QB or LT. Hopefully Seattle hints at taking a QB with their pick so that the Chiefs pick becomes worth more to someone looking to grab a QBOTF. The Seahawks are a complete wildcard. QB, RB, OL, S? Since they can get a LT with their 14th pick(Via the Donks), I think they will take the best player on the board.
Pick: Eric Berry, Tennessee

Nice post. i just gotta wonder if Pioli values offensive linemen this high in the draft. I know we are in desparate need, but I think Pioli gets his o-linemen later in the draft or thru f/a. We need a safety bad. I think we grab Berry.