Current Roster Evaluation

[texaschief]

I've seen a lot of posts stating vast overreactions to the state of the current roster. I've seen posts that state we need 3 new O-linemen, that we need 3 new WRs, and that we need 2 new safeties to go along with 2 or 3 new LBs, 2 new DTs and a new CB, a new RB and a new QB.

SO, basically, we don't have a SINGLE good player on this team. I think otherwise. So, I'm going to run down the roster and try to identify who stays, who goes and who currently on the roster can either keep their starting roles or step into a starting role. After this exercise and ensuing discussion, we should have a BETTER idea as to what positions ACTUALLY have to be filled thru free agency and the draft.

Let's start with the offense.

WR- Dwayne Bowe, Mark Bradley, Will Franklin, and Kevin Robinson

Dwayne Bowe is a legitimate #1 WR in the making and shouldn't be looked at as someone who needs to be replaced. He could very well turn into a #2 WR if the Chiefs get Boldin or Crabtree or Houshmandzadeh, but the Chiefs don't HAVE to go out and find that #1 WR. They would probably better served by finding a less expensive #2 WR. Mark Bradley was the #2 last season and he impressed a lot of people but he fell off dramatically during the second half of the season and could serve as a good #3 in the future. Will Franklin and Kevin Robinson still need time to develop as most late round WRs do and it's probably too soon to tell what they're going to become.

RB- Larry Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Kolby Smith, Jackie Battle

Who knows what the hell is going on with LJ. He's still talented enough to be a great back for a couple more seasons and would probably be more valuable to the team if the Chiefs kept him instead of trying to trade him. All the reasons we want to get rid of him are all the reasons why teams won't give us fair value in a trade. He serves the team better staying as the featured back. Jamaal Charles probably solidified his position as the 3rd down back and #2 back. Kolby Smith will serve this team well as the #3 back if one of the first two were to get hurt. Jackie Battle is probably going to find himself stuck on special teams or the practice squad.

TE- Tony Gonzalez, Brad Cottam, Michael Merritt, Jed Collins

Tony is staying. Again, his value to the team is more as a player than a trade chip. Chances are, he at the very least puts up an average Tony Gonzalez year. Brad Cottam gets another year to learn from TG before becoming the future at that position. The Chiefs are set at TE for the foreseeable future. Michael Merritt probably cost himself a roster spot "over a little weed." So look for the Chiefs to grab another TE at somepoint during the off season. I know NOTHING about Jed Collins. Perhaps he can step into Merritt's role on the team.

LT- Branden Albert, Herb Taylor, Andrew Carnahan

Branden Albert played beyond expectations for a rookie who missed the entire preseason. He has the talent to be the franchise's LT for the next decade or so. However, his versatility and college background gives the Chiefs to option to move him inside or to the other OT position and draft the best available LT at #3. Herb Taylor did enough during his time on the line this season to warrant a look at a starting spot somewhere on the line. I know nothing about Carnahan.

LG- Brian Waters, Wade Smith

Brian Waters is a Pro Bowl OG and will be back for at least another season and possibly two. The Chiefs should find a LG for the future at some point this off season or next. Wade Smith is a good backup guard and should have a roster spot locked down.

C- Rudy Niswanger, Wade Smith

Rudy Niswanger is too big for the C position. This position IS one of the positions on the line that should be upgraded this season. I'd expect the Chiefs to draft or sign a new Center. Wade Smith would probably lose his job as backup to Niswanger.

RG- Adrian Jones, Wade Smith, Tavares Washington

Another position that will change next season. Although, the replacement might be found on the current roster. I'd actually expect Niswanger to take a step to his right and fill this position. His size, build, and talent could be perfect for the guard spot. Wade Smith is a good backup and Washington is probably a non-factor.

RT- Damion McIntosh, Herb Taylor, Barry Richardson

This could actually be one of the deeper positions on the line. McIntosh really came on toward the end of the season and COULD keep his spot. Herb Talyor is knocking on the door and could push for a starting position. Barry Richardson was drafted last season with the thought in mind that HE could be the future at that position. Then, depending on what they want to do with Albert, HE could be at this spot to start the season. I'm not sure the Chiefs will be looking to bring in another player to compete here.

QB- Tyler Thigpen, Quinn Gray, Brodie Croyle, Damon Huard

Your guess is as good as mine here. If Pioli is as good of a talent evaluator as everyone says he is, he'll see that the value we'd have to give up for Cassel isn't nearly worth the difference between he and Thigpen. I doubt the Chiefs trade a pair of firsts for Cassel. Gray was a good back up and should be retained. Croyle would be a cheap, young and talented 3rd QB if no other QB were brought in to compete. Damon Huard probably doesn't have a spot next season.

Defense

LE- Tamba Hali, Wallace Gilberry, Turk McBride

Tamba Hali plays good at LE. I doubt they'll look to replace him. I can't see Turk McBride staying on the team. He just hasn't done enough. I know nothing about Gilberry.

LT- Tank Tyler, Alfonso Boone

Tank is developing nicely and I think the Chiefs got a steal in the 3rd, drafting this guy. Alfonso Boone is a good rotational player and he'll have a roster spot.

RT- Glenn Dorsey Ron Edwards, Derek Lokey

Everyone is freaking out about Dorsey and worrying that he could be Ryan Sims part Deux. That's not the case. Dorsey is going to be a great DT. The problem with him and Tyler going forward is that the Chiefs may not keep the 4-3 and that might spell doom for both players. Edwards is a good rotational player and should have a roster spot next season. I don't know much about Lokey other than he was above average at Texas.

RE- Jason Babin, Andy Studebaker, Brian Johnston

Jason Babin really surprised some people last season and may have won a roster spot going into next season. Although, I seriously doubt he'll be looked at as THE starting LDE. I don't know enough about Studebaker and Johnston to be able to give an informed opinion.

LOLB- Demarrio Williams, Curtis Gatewood

Williams needs to be a backup and the Chiefs need to fill their linebacking positions through free agency.

MLB- Pat Thomas Weston Dacus

See above

ROLB- Derrick Johnson

Johnson is the only good LB the Chiefs have on their team. Since being drafted 15th overall, he has underachieved. This season is going to be a huge year for him as it pertains to his future as a Chief.

LCB- Brandon Carr, Pat Surtain, Maurice Leggett

Brandon Carr and Maurice Leggett did enough last season to be considered for a starting position next season. Look for Pat Surtain to be released.

RCB- Brandon Flowers

Starter.... for a WHILE

SS- Bernard Pollard, DaJuan Morgan

Personally, I like Pollard. His mistakes seem to be basic. If he can figure out how to wrap up, I think we've got a SS for a long time.

FS- Jarrad Page, DaJuan Morgan, Jon McGraw

I wouldn't be surprised to see Page come back. But, I also wouldn't be surprised to see Morgan become the new FS.


The way I see it, the Chiefs NEED only a few players from free agency and the draft, while any other players they bring in would be considered upgrades and would render the players they replace as depth... WHICH IS A GOOD THING!!

This is how I see the roster:

FA/D= Free Agent/Draft

Offense
QB- Thigpen
RB- Johnson
TE- Gonzalez
WR- Bowe, FA/D, Bradley
LT-Albert or D
LG-Waters
C-FA/D
RG-Niswanger/Albert
RT-Taylor/Albert/McIntosh

Defense
LDE-Tamba Hali/Jason Babin
LT-Tyler
RT-Dorsey
RDE-FA/D
ROLB-FA/D
MLB-FA/D
LOLB-Johnson
LCB-Carr/Leggett/FA/D
RCB-Flowers/FA/D
SS-Pollard
FS-Morgan

So, as far as in players the Chiefs NEED to bring in, they really just NEED five players to complete the starting squad (excluding depth). We need a RDE, ROLB, MLB, #2 WR and a Center. The rest of the team CAN be filled through players already on the team.

[jmlamerson]

I thought you might say that.

So, how about Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning?

You mean the first overall pick in the draft and the 10th overall pick?!

Before he's done, I think Big Ben goes down as the 3rd best of his era (behing Brady and Peyton). His performance in the SB couldn't have been duplicated by any other QB out there - his ability to avoid sacks is unparallelled. The Cards wouldn't have won with any other QB behind that OL of the Steelers.

Eli has never been close to as bad as people said - he just was never as good as Peyton. He plays in a windy, cold weather stadium with a coach who will never go down as one of the top 100 all time. I think he's done very, very well for his situation.

[chief31]

You mean the first overall pick in the draft and the 10th overall pick?!

Before he's done, I think Big Ben goes down as the 3rd best of his era (behing Brady and Peyton). His performance in the SB couldn't have been duplicated by any other QB out there - his ability to avoid sacks is unparallelled. The Cards wouldn't have won with any other QB behind that OL of the Steelers.

Eli has never been close to as bad as people said - he just was never as good as Peyton. He plays in a windy, cold weather stadium with a coach who will never go down as one of the top 100 all time. I think he's done very, very well for his situation.

Lol. Draft position didn't matter before.

And neither gets elite stats.

I actually think that Ben is one of the best QBs in the league. But he does not get the elite stats, and really isn't the major factor to his team that a Tom Brady, Payton Manning, or Kurt Warner are.

Either way, two of the past four Super Bowl QBs are not elite. Either because they were crap coming into the league, or because they aren't the focal point of their team.

One half or the other isn't 'elite'.

[texaschief]

By no means am I suggesting that we should try to find the next Tom Brady late in the draft. At some point, I think the Chiefs SHOULD get a first round QB. The QBs that are taken in the first round are there for a reason. They've shown great skill sets in college and are considered the best in their class. Banking on a fluke that there might be a late round gem and that WE find him, is just pie in the sky.

If we were drafting 10th or later, I might be willing to take a Stafford or Sanchez if they fell. But NEITHER of those QBs are worth the #3 spot. Then, when you add to the equation all the holes the Chiefs still need to fill (especially on the O-line), THIS YEAR just isn't the year to take that gamble. When you draft in the top 3, it really shouldn't matter what position the player plays. As a GM, it's your responsibility not to miss and take the best player available. When a top 10 QB busts 63% of the time, that's just not a smart decision. Taking a QB #1, #3, or whatever, doesn't make him a great QB. He has to EARN being drafted in that spot. Just because they're the best QBs in their class, doesn't mean they're the best PLAYER at #3.

IMO, the reward just doesn't outweigh the risk. Stafford could be the next Elway, but history shows that he has a MUCH better chance of being an Alex Smith, Joey Harrington, or David Carr.

Not only would taking a QB be a risk, but it would be downright reckless and ABSOLUTELY the biggest gamble in the history of this franchise. I'm all for taking risk and again, agree that the Chiefs should take a first round QB at some point... just not this season.

Again, I wouldn't be against trading a conditional 1st-3rd round pick in 2010 for a young guy like Leinart.

[hometeam]

I dont know if its really a concern to anyone in the league, but I am not sold on a left handed QB.

Probabaly becuase of the way left handed QBs play in Madden, but still, it seems unnatural to the flow of the game to me :P

[kcmostwanted]

Stafford played like sh!t in the big games against legit opponents like Florida and Alabama AND poor opponents like Tennessee and Vandy. In those 4 games, he threw 8 INTs. His team was good enough against Tennessee and Vandy to overcome 2 INTs in those games each. His highest completion % game was against Tennessee. He went 25 of 36 in that game. Hell, Thigpen did that against NFL competition when they played the Jets where he went 25 of 36 as well. Just based on accuracy alone, I'd rather stick with Thigpen who's proven that he can complete passes against NFL talent as he finished the year with a 56.8% comp% INCLUDING the Oakland AND Atlanta games. Stafford finished the year with a 61.1 comp% against an uncharacteristically weak schedule in the SEC this season.

Those numbers just don't make me want to go out and thank God for Stafford falling to us at #3 if that were to happen. Especially if I'm going to have to drop a huge salary on a player who's ten year history shows there's only a 36% chance of him being successful anyway.

I agree that taking a QB is a gamble but what isn't when it comes to the NFL draft??? Also, one fact you didn't mention is that Tyler played in the spread last year, which he should have better stats. I like Tyler and he has lots of tools to be an NFL QB but you have to question the mental aspect of his game.
When a QB stands in the Shotgun he can scan the field and read the D even before the ball is snapped, which makes it easier.. I just want to know if Tyler will ever be able to make reads as he's doing a 3 or 5 step drop because the spread was just a bandage and probably won't be around for very long in KC.

I just have the feeling that everyone wants to hold off the QB draft pick so that we can land Bradford next year...Which I think is very ignorant because that means well really suck(I honestly question all spread QB coming out of college.. Bradford included).
Everyone had their doubts about many ProBowl QB you mentioned as well.
There are always question marks regarding any player that comes out and makes the transition to pro. The scouts once said that Robert Gallery would be a pro bowl tackle, and would anchor the Oakland Line for the next 10 years, but that didn't work out too well either...on the flip side there's Joe Thomas who has been a stud since the first snap... Flops will come and go, I just hope KC doesn't grab one ....whether they're drafting QB, OL, DL, or LB w/ their #3 pick.

[warcrychief]

Pioli will draft a QB in the first round IMO

[AussieChiefsFan]

Pioli will draft a QB in the first round IMO

i hope he dosen't! I want a DE, DT or LB (a good LB is Aaron Curry. We should draft him!)

[pbatrucker]

Great reply. We definatly need an OT and I believe one of the two top centers will be available in the second round. That would allow our current center to right guard were he probally belongs and our OL would be pretty solid.
Our DL might not be as bad as we think. I can't recallour DL line running any stunts at all last year. It seems to me that they would tie up one on one with the OL therfore not utilizing there quickness and causing confusion so that our blitzers have an opurtuntiy to get to the QB. Yes we still need a pass rusher, I'm just saying that our players were not utilized correctly.

[warcrychief]

Great reply. We definatly need an OT and I believe one of the two top centers will be available in the second round. That would allow our current center to right guard were he probally belongs and our OL would be pretty solid.
Our DL might not be as bad as we think. I can't recallour DL line running any stunts at all last year. It seems to me that they would tie up one on one with the OL therfore not utilizing there quickness and causing confusion so that our blitzers have an opurtuntiy to get to the QB. Yes we still need a pass rusher, I'm just saying that our players were not utilized correctly.

I agree with you on how our D-line was miss used. When you just rush 4 line men and they have 5 linemen blocking everytime, your not going to have a good rush. That defense last year looking nothing like Gunther would have ran. So im saying that Herm had the last word as to what the team ran on D. He hardly ever blitzed and the LB we always backpeddling. Thats why we gave up so much on the run D. You look at all of the end of the games where we were ahead. And you will see alot of guys were in the right area, but were never attacking. I hate the Cover 2.

[pbatrucker]

From what limited information I have from the combine I believe these are at the top of our list at #3.
Curry and monroe did well in the drills and were exceptional in the interviews. Both grade well on film and should be model citizens in our community.
Jason Smith did well in the drills and was tops in the bench press.