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I’m a stathead, so I wanted to relay the "Win Probability Added" (WPA) stats from Advanced NFL Stats to everyone here. WPA is basically what it says, how many wins does a player add to his team. You can see the results from this year here: Advanced NFL Stats – Player Statistics by Position

The best QB this year is Matt Ryan, adding 4.49 wins to his team. This number will likely go up as more games are played. For instance, last year Tom Brady added 7.91 wins to his team, Brees 6.91.

This year, Matt Cassel has a WPA of -1.12 and Quinn a WPA of -0.43. This means our QBs have cost us 1.5 wins. That is an atrocious number.

If we have a quarterback in there that has a WPA of 3, that’s a swing of 4.5 wins and thus we are sitting as a 6 or 7 win team (2 + 4.5 = 6.5…hence why I said 6 or 7). This is all theoretical, but I’m just trying to display the power a good QB can have on this team.

The best Linebacker in terms of WPA, Lawrence Timmons of the Steelers, has a WPA of 1.83. If we took Te’o and automatically assume he becomes the best linebacker in the league in terms of WPA (which is very very very unlikely), then we’d assume we’d have 2 more wins roughly. He would basically offset the 1.55 wins that our QBs have cost us. We’re still a 4-8 team.

If Geno Smith turned into just Russell Wilson, who has a WPA of 1.91, then this team has added the negative 1.55 wins that Cassel and Quinn are responsible for and another 1.91 wins from a better quarterback. So 3.46 wins. That puts us at 5-7 or 6-6. If Geno Smith turned into something more, then we’re sitting even prettier.

What am I trying to get at? It’s evident from this that QB is the weakest position on the team, so bad that they’ve actually cost the team 1.55 wins. And by the way if you think Alex Smith is the answer, his WPA last year was 0.60 and this year 0.89. No thanks.

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I just wanted to express my condolensces on what happened last weekend. I am very sorry to hear that and very saddened on the loss of Belcher and his girlfriend. I like Kansas City and always have. Great fans and Great team. Last year I am happy that our one loss came against a classy team. I will keep you guys in my thoughts and prayers. Much love from Green Bay.

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Coming into the season, there was little doubt as to who the Super Bowl contenders were. The stalwarts like:

Patriots-Brady
Steelers-Roethlesberger
Ravens-Flacco
Falcons-Ryan
Texans-Shaub
Packers-Rogers
Giants-Manning

As horrible as the Chiefs offense has been this season, they still have a defense ranked #15 in the league. Pair that defense with an offense that can control the clock and keep them fresh, and Chiefs would have a top 10 or even top 5 defense. The offensive line ranks in the top 5. The Chiefs have the 4th best rushing attack. They have 2 first round picks at WR along with Breaston, McCluster, and a great pass catching TE in Moeaki. This team as an above average special teams unit as well.

The Chiefs, as a full unit, have fewer holes on their team than the perennial Super Bowl contenders. So, what are we missing? We can sit here and blame coaching until we’re blue in the face, but the point of the matter is that this team won’t be able to do anything until they address the most important position on the team. No coaching staff will have a chance at success as long as Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn are under center.

If you don’t believe me, go watch the Steelers being led by Charlie Batch. They’re AWFUL. They look a lot like Chiefs, in fact.

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Anyone know what’s going on with him I read about a cart off to the locker room in a different thread

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While some may disagree, I feel Cassel is not the answer going forward. Because of this and believing Quinn is not the answer either do we play Stanzi for a couple games and exhaust all options so when we go into next year, we know if we can keep him around on the cheap for a true back up? I would, only worry is if he does struggle for the rest of the year we don’t get a good read of everyone else on that side of the ball. Either way a good cleaning of this franchise is needed to bring it back to where it should be. Not all, but certain things need to be refurbished. Bash away.

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